128 FXUS64 KSJT 230000 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 700 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 .AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ Scattered showers and thunderstorms are continuing to impact the southern half of West Central Texas this evening, with activity currently near the KSJT terminal. Will continue to indicate VCTS at KSJT, KSOA, and KJCT for the next few hours and amend TAFS based on radar trends. Othewise, low cloud development is expected overnight mainly across the southern terminals but will maintain VFR ceiling in the TAFS. Winds will remain out of the northeast overnight and into tomorrow. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 239 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019/ SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Tuesday) Surface winds this afternoon have become northeast across a large part of our area and adjacent parts of West Texas into the Trans- Pecos, with a surface ridge of high pressure bridging the front. The cold front is pushing south into the northern Concho Valley and northern heartland areas, with a cumulus field in the destabilizing airmass ahead of it. Isolated showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop along the front. Additional development of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected along the front as it continues to move south later this afternoon and evening, and into early tonight. With DCAPE values around 1200 J/kg, a few storms this afternoon and early evening may have strong downburst winds. The models vary with the placement of convection this evening and tonight. The 12Z NAM and GFS have an indication of increased development just behind the front, along an axis of higher precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches. This would support a potential for locally heavy rainfall across parts of the southern half of our area. An increase in cloud cover is expected tonight behind the front. Rain chances will shut off early to mid-morning Tuesday in the far southern part of our area, and drier air will filter in from the north. Skies will be clearing from the north during the day. Even with afternoon sunshine, temperatures will be cooler across our area Tuesday, with highs expected to be mostly in the upper 80s to near 90. With a northeast breeze expected and dewpoints dropping into the 50s, Tuesday is shaping up to be a nice day by July standards. LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Dry and cooler weather is on tap through Thursday, with a surface high pressure ridge extending into the area. Temperatures both Wednesday and Thursday will be below normal, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. A drier airmass, combined with mostly clear skies and light winds, will allow temperatures to drop into the lower 60s areawide Wednesday night, with a few readings in the upper 50s possible in some of the low lying areas and river bottoms. Dry weather will continue late this week into the upcoming weekend, with slightly warmer temperatures as south winds return. The center of the upper ridge will remain over the southwest states through the period, so temperatures will be closer to normal for late July, with highs in the lower to mid 90s and lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 95 69 88 62 / 20 10 5 0 San Angelo 99 69 90 62 / 30 40 10 0 Junction 98 70 90 63 / 10 50 10 10 Brownwood 96 69 88 61 / 20 20 10 0 Sweetwater 94 68 87 63 / 20 10 10 0 Ozona 96 69 89 62 / 20 40 10 5 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 42