874 FXUS63 KMQT 220917 CCA AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Marquette MI 517 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 457 AM EDT MON JUL 22 2019 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level ridge from the northern Rockies into Saskatchewan and a low over northwest Quebec resulting cyclonic nw flow through the northern Great Lakes. a shortwave trough dropping sse through nrn Manitoba supported showers and a few tsra. Otherwise, high pressure building from the northern Plains into the western Great Lakes continued to bring dry cool air into the region on anticyclonic nrly low level flow. Today, abundant sunshine with sfc heating pushing mixing heights to around 7k feet will help drop dewpoints into the lower 40s this afternoon over much of Upper Michigan. With inland temps climbing into the mid 70s, RH values will drop to near 30 percent. The dry conditions combined with north winds gusting to 20 mph will result in an elevated wildfire risk especially for central and eastern Upper Michigan that have received lower rainfall amounts over the last few weeks. Onshore flow will keep temps in the upper 60s to around 70 along Lake Superior. Tonight, the Manitoba shrtwv will slide through Lake Superior and Upper Michigan bringing the potential for some isolated showers or sprinkles. Given current trends, some tsra may be possible into western Lake Superior and possibly western Upper Michigan. However, the weak forcing and limited MUCAPE will be marginal to support any tsra. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 352 AM EDT MON JUL 22 2019 The main forecast concern through the middle of the week is the potential for near elevated fire weather conditions given the persistent dry conditions and breezy winds, especially Tuesday and Thursday. As we remain on the eastern and eventually northern fringe of high pressure, ample dry air aloft will setup across the region. This will allow good diurnal mixing during the afternoon hours, favoring afternoon drying/warming and mixing down stronger winds aloft. Right now have RHs falling into the 30-40% range each day through Thursday. Suppose it isn't out of the question that things could dry out a bit more where any localized warming/downslope effects may locally depend the mixing. Models do show the moisture starting to return northward Wednesday into Thursday, but forecast soundings still show the above mentioned dry air aloft lingering on Thursday. Therefore, with mixing still think there is the potential for min RHs to remain fairly low through Thursday, along with gust southwest winds ahead of an approaching cold front. Temperatures will gradually warm through Thursday as well, from mid 70s - lower 80s on Tuesday to low to mid 80s by Thursday. There could be a stray showers or storm early Tuesday morning, and then Wednesday afternoon across the south central. Not expecting much in the way of rainfall accumulations and any convection should remain fairly isolated given the amount of dry air in place. Thursday night into Saturday morning, the above mentioned cold front will gradually push east and sag south with time, ushering in chances for showers and thunderstorms. The associated shortwave tracking just north of the area looks to weaken as it moves overhead, this combined with front-parallel mid-level flow we could see the shower and thunderstorm activity linger through the weekend. Another, more impressive shortwave is progged to push east along the US/Canadian border, bringing the potential for more precipitation early next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 121 AM EDT MON JUL 22 2019 While confidence is low in fog formation at KIWD, model soundings continue to hint at some development in the pre-dawn hours, so left mention for this issuance. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail, with mid-level clouds moving in, accompanied perhaps by some showers, toward the end of this TAF period. Light and variable to calm winds overnight will pick back up during the day out of the northeast. && .MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 457 AM EDT MON JUL 22 2019 Winds below 20 knots are expected through much of the week under prevailing high pressure. The approach of a sfc trough late in the week (Thu night into Fri) will result in an increase of southwest winds to perhaps 25 knots at that time. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...Ritzman AVIATION...lg MARINE...JLB