542 FXUS61 KCLE 220116 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 916 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will move south across the area this evening as low pressure along the boundary shifts east across central and southern Ohio to the mid Atlantic States by Monday afternoon. A much cooler and less humid air mass will move into the region for much of the week as high pressure gradually builds into and across the Ohio Valley. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Rain continues to move from west to east across the area. Although, thunderstorm tops are beginning to warm and radar trends indicating activity is making some attempt to weaken. The potential for heavy rainfall over already saturated ground from rainfall earlier tonight will pose a risk for additional flooding. Expecting the main area of rain over the west to move east of the area after midnight. Then, as low pressure moves into the region expecting another area of showers and thunderstorms to develop across the area late tonight. This trend is starting to show up over Illinois at this time and will advance east with time. The rain cooled temperatures down across the area and made adjustments to current temperatures. Previous Discussion... The main question in the near term is the amount and intensity of convective development that is expected this evening. A diffuse/weak frontal/lake breeze boundary located from the south shore of Lake Erie to low pressure in central Indiana will help focus convective development over the next several hours as the low progresses eastward. The complex over northern IN will likely move east as other development occurs in the CWA. With PW near 1.7" heavy downpours are possible with the slow moving storms. Downburst winds are possible too given DCAPE near 1100 J/KG and MLCAPE near 2000 J/KG. Coverage should increase by 21 UTC over the western and central counties of the CWA from near FDY to MFD Knox and MNN with lesser coverage to the east across Stark County. The activity should decrease by midnight and still linger into Monday over the southeast half of the area as the surface wave makes its way east of Ohio. Convective potential will decrease so will not mention thunder but some is still possible. Cooler less humid air will gradually filter into the region Monday and Monday night. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Big change from the weekend for the short term period. Surface high pressure will work from west of the Great Lakes and across our region. Aloft the upper trough axis swings across on Tuesday and this may be enough to kick off a few isolated/scattered showers. Otherwise fair with temperatures running a few degrees below normal in the mid/upper 70s. By Thursday, though, the high shifts east and we will gain a few degrees and highs will be back in the upper 70s/lower 80s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The stretch of good weather will continue to end the week. A cold front on the horizon for the weekend is now being delayed by the models and therefore have lowered the precip chances for Saturday. Kept some mention for Sunday though at this point with increasing heat/moisture. Temperatures through the period will be seasonable. && .AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... A line of thunderstorms developed along a stationary front this afternoon and the activity will continue to expand through the evening. A line of storms will move east out of Indiana as well. Wind gusts to 45 knots expected with the storms but a few could reach stronger severe limits. Very heavy rain potential exists with the thunderstorms with ceilings down to 1000 feet and 1/2SM visibilities. Activity is possible it could continue through the night in the east with gradual improvement through the morning tomorrow from west to east and go to VFR. Winds will be variable across the area due to multiple outflow boundaries bouncing around this evening. Flow becomes northerly for tomorrow and tomorrow evening. OUTLOOK...VFR. && .MARINE... Cold frontal boundary south of the lake, but a trough remains with the airmass change arriving on Monday. Winds will remain out of the north to northeast tonight into Monday as a wave travels along the front across Ohio. There is an uptick in wind expected tonight which may make the nearshore waters choppy, but a second and better uptick is expected Monday with the arrival of the cooler airmass. We could very well see a Small Craft Advisory for Monday night. Beyond that high pressure shifts from west of the lakes to the eastern lakes through the course of the week with fair conditions on Lake Erie. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LaPlante NEAR TERM...LaPlante/Lombardy SHORT TERM...Oudeman LONG TERM...Oudeman AVIATION...Lombardy MARINE...Oudeman