681 FXUS66 KPQR 201730 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Service Portland OR 1029 AM PDT Sat Jul 20 2019 Updated Aviation Discussion .SYNOPSIS...High pressure over the region will maintain mostly clear skies, along with warm days and pleasant nights. Temperatures cool a tad to start next week, thanks to increased onshore flow. Overall, dry next week, with seasonable temperatures. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...High pressure over the region will maintain clear skies for next few days. Only clouds likely to be patchy morning stratus along the coast today and Sunday morning. Mid and low level flow is more north to northeasterly today, allowing for a thermal trough to strengthen a bit, and sit along the coastline by afternoon. With trough along the coast, will see warmer temperatures across the region, with middle 80s a good bet today for the interior, with upper 60s to middle 70s along the coast. Thermal trough will shift back to the interior later tonight, and sit over the Willamette Valley and Clark County later tonight into Sunday morning, then shifts to over the Cascades foothills by later Sunday afternoon. So, will see temperatures a tad cooler along the coast, but temperatures inland will be 2 to 5 deg warmer on Sunday. Would not be surprised to see a few spots reach darn close to if not 90 deg, especially from Portland as far south as Albany. Now, models continue to indicate a weak upper level trough will swing off the Pac and across the inland Pac NW later Sun night and Mon. This will push the thermal trough back to the east of the Cascades Sunday night and Monday, resulting in increased onshore flow and cooler temperatures for all areas. Mid and upper level moisture is not all that impressive with this trough. In fact, models indicate only high cirrus moving across region on Monday, with some patchy marine stratus. There is hardly any moisture between 850 and 500 mb, supporting very low chance of precip. So, will not put any PoPs in the forecast. Rockey. .LONG TERM...Monday night through Friday...After warmer weather over the weekend, expect another brief cool down Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper level trough moves across the Pac NW. The marine layer will likely deepen ahead of this system Monday night, with low clouds pressing into the inland valleys Tuesday morning. Cannot rule out some areas of drizzle as this occurs, especially along the coast and Coast Range. With the trough axis passing across region later Tue night into Wednesday morning, should be enough lift to support patchy drizzle out of the deep marine layer. Also, can not rule out few showers over the northern zones. Will keep 20 pct PoPs for areas north of a Tillamook to Portland line later Tue night into Wed am. Models seem to be in decent agreement that 500 mb heights will already start to rebound by Wednesday afternoon as our upper trough departs NE toward the Canadian Rockies and high pressure builds into the Pac NW. This will likely be the beginning of another significant warming trend, especially for inland areas, with temperatures back at 5 to 10 degrees above normal by end of next week. /WeagleRock && .AVIATION...VFR through the next 24 hours, apart from some patchy fog possibly clipping the ONP terminal Sunday morning around 12Z-16Z. Northwest to north wind gusts this afternoon and evening 15-20 kt, with stronger winds gusting up to 25 kt along the central coast impacting ONP. Winds decreasing around 03-05Z. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt mainly 20/21Z-21/04Z. -McCoy && .MARINE...Thermal trough over SW Oregon will continue to bring gusty winds along the coastal waters through early overnight. Have extended the SCA through 2 AM Sunday. Have concern that the central waters will see low end square seas, although a longer period fresh NW swell seems to have begun dominating the sea state over the last few hours. Will separate the northern and central waters in the SCA to address this. Also will use the separation to highlight better where the winds will affect the northern waters. Gradients weaken Sunday as low pressure passes north of the area. Next concern will start Wednesday afternoon and evening as another thermal trough strengthens along the southern Oregon coast. Expect winds to nose above SCA criteria and may also see a return of low end square seas. /JBonk && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Sunday for Coastal Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM. && $$ Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland www.twitter.com/NWSPortland This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. This area is commonly referred to as the forecast area.