589 FXUS62 KMHX 191746 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 146 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid conditions continue through early next week as the area remains between subtropical high pressure offshore and weak troughing inland. A front will approach the area Tuesday before crossing Wednesday, bringing much needed relief from the heat for the second half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 940 AM Fri... Minor adjustments to the forecast based on current temp and dewpoint trends. Otherwise, no changes as hot/humid conditions will continue with heat advisory in effect for all areas. Expect isolated to scattered showers to develop this afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland. Pre Dis...Latest sfc analysis shows high pressure offshore extending over the SE US and troughing inland. Little to no pattern change today from the last several days, with high pressure offshore in control, troughing inland, and strong ridge aloft. The main story today continues to be the dangerous heat and humidity. Low level thickness values, SW winds, and 850 mb temps around 20C support highs 90-95 degrees, maybe a few upper 90s inland. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the entire area with heat indices climbing to 105-110 degrees this afternoon. Scattered showers and storms expected to develop this afternoon and evening, aided by seabreeze and weak shortwave energy aloft. Atmosphere remains unstable, but with little shear (less than 15 kt 0-6 km) expect similar pulse type convection. An isolated storm could become strong to severe with gusty winds, but main threat will likely be locally heavy rain as PWATs climb towards 2.3". && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... As of 255 AM Fri...Expect convection to dissipate with loss of heating this evening, becoming isolated overnight. Warm and muggy overnight with lows in the mid 70s to low 80s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 3 AM Fri...Very hot and humid conditions continue through the weekend. Relief comes by the middle of next week as a cold front reaches the area. Saturday and Sunday...Strong upper ridging prevails through the weekend. At the surface, subtropical high pressure well offshore slides further south, bringing more of a westward component to the low level flow as weak troughing persists inland. While the WSWrly low level flow will inhibit the progression of the sea breeze and suppress afternoon convection below normal summertime levels, it will also bring low level thickness values corresponding to highs in the mid to upper 90s across the area both days. Realized highs will largely on scattered cirrus streaming overhead, but several locations reaching 100 (near record highs) is possible either day. These warm temps combined with dew points in the mid to upper 70s will bring heat index values to around 110 each afternoon away from the beaches, and an Excessive Heat Watch has been issued for Saturday, with another likely needed for Sunday. Monday through Wednesday...Heights aloft begin to fall later in the day Monday as the upper ridge breaks down and troughing begins to develop across the eastern US. While the subtropical high remains in control Monday, a cold front associated with low pressure developing off the New England coast will approach Tuesday. Deep moisture convergence ahead of this front looks ample enough to justify the continuation of likely POPs Tuesday into Tuesday night. Wednesday is uncertain as the front could stall inland with a wave developing along it during the day, ushering the front through as the wave slides northward over the Mid-Atlantic coast later Wednesday. Realized rainfall totals will depend on the timing and progression of these features, but some locations could receive 1-2+ inches or rainfall Tuesday into Wednesday. Temps will remain above normal Monday before returning to more seasonable, or possibly below normal, Tuesday and Wednesday...depending on the progression of the front. Thursday...The end of the workweek looks relatively settled and seasonable as high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes region under slowly increasing heights aloft. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term /Through Saturday/... As of 140 PM Fri...VFR conditions will dominate the TAF period. Only a slight chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon. Low PoPs expected overall, so only vcts and vcsh mentioned in TAFs. Any shra or tsra will result in brief sub VFR conditions. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt this afternoon at EWN. Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 3 AM Fri...VFR conditions prevail into early next week with gusty WSW to SW winds and the potential for brief flight restrictions in passing showers and thunderstorms mainly during the days. A cold front approaching the area Tuesday will bring increasingly unsettled weather into the middle of the week. && .MARINE... Short Term /through tonight/... As of 945 AM Fri...Latest buoy obs show SW winds 10-20 kt with gusty winds up to 25 kts over the central waters. Seas are 3-6 ft, highest across the central waters. SCA remains in effect for the central waters, and extended through this evening based on good agreement between Wavewatch and NWPS keeping a small area of 6 ft seas as SW winds remain gusty. Gradient will relax a bit this morning, increasing again this afternoon and evening. SW winds diminish to 10-20 kt this morning, increasing to 15-20 kt this afternoon and evening. Similar tonight with gusty winds early diminishing a bit towards morning. Seas subsiding to 3-5 ft tonight. Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 3 AM Fri...The gradient will relax a bit over the weekend as moderate WSW flow prevails, with 3 to 5 ft seas. Early next week, an approaching cold front will bring increasing southwesterly flow, with 15 to 25 kt winds expected to bring seas to 5 to 7 ft Monday - likely necessitating an SCA. Improving wind and sea conditions could arrive Tuesday as the front moves over the aera, but model timing and feature differences make the forecast uncertain. && .CLIMATE... Near record high temps will be possible this weekend. Record High temps for 7/20 (Saturday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 100/1977 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 92/2002 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 102/1977 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 98/1986 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 103/1977 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 101/1977 (KNCA ASOS) Record High temps for 7/21 (Sunday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 103/1952 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 94/1977 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 102/1977 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 98/1987 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 101/2011 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 100/1987 (KNCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>047- 079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205. Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196- 198-199. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ152- 154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CQD/BM SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...CB AVIATION...CQD/ML MARINE...CQD/BM/CB CLIMATE...MHX