408 
FXUS66 KMFR 191631
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
931 AM PDT Fri Jul 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...

No changes to the forecast for this update as the forecast 
remains on track. The stratus clouds have started to clear out as 
drier air lingers over the forecast area today. Offshore flow near
Brookings will be the weather feature today with highs in the 
lower 80's along the southern Oregon coastline.

For more information beyond today read the discussion below.

-Smith

&&

.AVIATION...For the 19/12Z TAFS...
A mix of VFR, MVFR, and IFR ceilings exist this morning across 
the interior, with the lowest ceilings likely along the 
Umpqua Divide and western foothills of the Cascades. Those 
locations along the Umpqua Divide are likely experiencing 
a mix of low ceilings and fog, so expect partial terrain 
obscurations there. Expect all areas to become VFR by this 
afternoon. Breezy and gusty low level north to northwest winds 
are expected this afternoon and evening across the west side, 
strongest at the coast and in the Umpqua Valley. 

BTL


&&

.MARINE...Updated 830 AM PDT Friday 19 July 2019...The thermal 
trough along the coast will peak in strength this afternoon and 
evening. Conditions hazardous to small craft will continue across 
all of the waters with more hazardous warning level conditions this 
afternoon and evening for much of the area between 2 and 60 NM from 
shore south of Cape Blanco. Winds will diminish Saturday and Sunday. 
The reprieve from advisory level conditions will last from Monday 
through Wednesday morning. Winds will approach gale force again 
south of Cape Blanco Wednesday afternoon through Friday.

-Stockton

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 447 AM PDT Fri Jul 19 2019/ 

With an upper level trough remaining over the west coast, 
westerly flow into the region continues below normal temperatures.
The upper level trough then transitions to a weak ridge into 
Saturday with southerly flow beginning to feed into the area. This
change in the pattern will bring both a jump in temperatures, and
a feed of a moist unstable air mass into the region. Temperatures
will finally go above normal for most of the region Saturday, 
continuing to rise slightly into Sunday. 

The feeding of moist and unstable air will bring a slight chance
of thunderstorms over portions of the far east side Sunday
afternoon into the evening. There is instability farther west 
into the central Cascades near Crater Lake, but mid level moisture
is looking too low for any sustain upward development at this 
time, and just having a slight chance farther east still looks on 
track. 

As we head into early next week an upper trough deepens well
offshore, but Sunday night should see a marine push of stable air
with the area of instability along the cascades north of the 
Crater Lake area. Mid level humidities are above 60% north of our 
forecast area and will not add any chances of thunderstorms in our
forecast area Monday. 

Sven 


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370. 
     Gale Warning until 5 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ356-376. 
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ376. 
     Hazardous Seas Warning from 5 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday for 
     PZZ376. 

$$