224 FXUS65 KBYZ 191524 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 924 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2019 .UPDATE... The previous forecast looks good. No updates planned this morning. Hooley && .SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Sat... We had a weak cold front and upper disturbance combine to produce some strong thunderstorms over southeastern Montana overnight. Even an unconfirmed tornado near the Capitol/Camp Crook vicinity in eastern Carter county around 110 AM that destroyed a ranchers garage. There is still some weak low level convergence east/northeast of Billings to Miles City producing some light showers or sprinkles, but this is expected to gradually dissipate or move across the Dakota border by 6 am. For today, zonal flow continues to prevail with 500mb jet positioned west to east through Montana. CAM's suggest weak showers across the region by late afternoon or evening. The environment is better for strong thunderstorms in the southeast where a few strong thunderstorms are possible late today and this evening. Highs today will be a little cooler with upper 70s to mid 80s common. Saturday looks drier with little if any chance of precipitation as upper jet shifts northeast out of the region. Temperatures will remain below normal Saturday with highs in the 70s to lower 80s. BT .LONG TERM...valid for Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu... A deep ridging pattern still looks to dominate the first portion of next week as a monsoonal flow takes over the western CONUS. As the ridge looks to max out over Montana on Tuesday, it may bring chances for showers and storms to areas in our western districts via moisture brought in from the pacific and some shortwaves on the western side of the ridge axis. A canadian trough may flatten the ridge in the mid week that could also help bring some storm activity to the area. Temperatures will rise to the mid to upper 90s by Tuesday and look to stay in the upper 80s to low 90s through the week. Some uncertainty lies with exactly how high temperatures will rise, but it's safe to say it will be hot across Montana. Vertz && .AVIATION... VFR will prevail today through Saturday morning. A few mountain showers or thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon over the Beartooths/Absarokas. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will move E through the area this evening and will be over far SE MT late tonight. MVFR/IFR conditions are most likely in the storms that reach far SE MT. Arthur && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 081 053/079 053/085 058/094 065/097 066/095 066/090 0/U 20/U 00/U 01/U 11/U 11/B 21/U LVM 080 041/078 043/083 053/091 058/093 059/091 058/087 1/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 12/T 23/T 33/T HDN 082 055/079 052/083 058/093 063/095 065/094 065/090 0/U 20/U 00/U 01/U 11/U 11/B 21/U MLS 081 054/079 053/082 058/091 063/095 066/095 067/090 0/B 20/U 00/U 01/U 11/U 10/B 21/U 4BQ 082 056/077 051/080 058/089 062/093 065/094 066/090 1/U 21/B 10/U 11/U 11/U 11/B 21/U BHK 080 055/078 051/080 056/086 060/090 062/092 065/089 0/U 20/U 00/U 10/U 11/U 10/B 21/U SHR 084 051/077 049/081 056/092 060/095 062/094 063/089 0/B 11/U 11/U 11/U 22/T 32/T 34/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings