489 FXUS65 KABQ 190534 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1134 PM MDT Thu Jul 18 2019 .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period with another round of breezy NW winds mixing down around the upper high Friday afternoon. Southerly return flow will remain across the southeast portions of the forecast area from KROW to KCVN and KTCC. Dry air will again limit any afternoon ts activity to the southern high terrain, with more isold activity falling off to the surrounding lower terrain late in the afternoon/evening. Many ts will likely be dry in nature with gusty erratic outflow winds being the main concern. Very hot temperatures will again cause density altitude concerns Friday and Saturday. 24/RHJ && .PREV DISCUSSION...235 PM MDT Thu Jul 18 2019... .SYNOPSIS... Very hot and dry conditions will continue through Saturday with near record heat possible. Any showers and thunderstorms that form will focus mainly over the southern high terrain of New Mexico. A moist back door cold front will race southwest through the eastern plains on Saturday night and deliver a robust surge of moisture westward past the Continental Divide. The coverage of showers and storms with heavy rainfall will increase over much of the area for all of next week. High temperatures will cool closer to normal with the wetter pattern. && .DISCUSSION... Upper level high pressure centered over the NM Bootheel has allowed a much drier airmass over the Great Basin to surge southeast across the northwestern half of NM. 20Z surface dewpoints have fallen into the lower 30s over most of northern/western NM with 40s across the eastern plains. 700mb temps are averaging 18-20C which is near the 99th percentile for mid July. As a result, serious heat is in place across eastern NM where KROW has hit 106 today. The remainder of the lower terrain of central/western NM is still very hot with readings in the low to mid 90s. Heat advisories will remain in place for Quay and Chaves counties through Friday and possibly Saturday with little change expected to the current pattern over NM. 12Z models are in better agreement today on the timing and depth of a strong back door cold front entering eastern NM late Saturday. Model instability is impressive along the surface front across the northeastern plains Saturday afternoon and strong to severe storms are a certain possibility. Convective activity over the plains will enhance the frontal progression westward through the RGV Saturday night then west of the Cont Dvd through Sunday morning. Meanwhile, the center of upper level high pressure will lift north into the Four Corners and allow moist low level return flow to increase over NM. Model PWs of 1 to 1.5", abundant instability, and slow storm motion will be favorable for heavy rainfall Sunday through Wednesday. There are still some differences between the 12Z ECMWF and GEFS with the placement of the upper level high center and the axis of theta-es, however trends are lining up for robust monsoon activity all of next week. Guyer && .FIRE WEATHER... The current very hot and dry conditions will persist on Friday as dry air continues to stay put over northern NM. Storm coverage will be limited on Friday, with wetting precipitation likely confined to the high terrain south of I-40. Minimum humidities will remain in the low teens across most of the forecast area, and a few spots could even see a couple hours of single digit RHs. Fortunately, winds will remain light. Some relief is in sight beginning Saturday. While temperatures will remain hot, some mid-level moisture will begin to work its way into eastern NM which will begin to increase precipitation chances over the central mountains. Storm coverage will be better than Friday, but best chances for wetting precipitation will still be confined to the high terrain. The real relief will be the form of a backdoor cold front. There is still some uncertainty regarding timing, but as of now, it looks like the front will move through the eastern plains late Saturday and reach the RGV by early Sunday morning. Temperatures will cool behind the front, and moisture will increase substantially which will allow for better storm coverage starting Sunday and continuing through at least the middle of next week. 15 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM MDT Friday for the following zones... NMZ534-538. && $$