484 
FXUS64 KLUB 181525
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1025 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period with
breezy southerly winds for this afternoon and evening at all three
terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 301 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019/


DISCUSSION...
The mid level moisture plume that was overhead early this morning 
will continue to thin out for the rest of today in the middle of a 
shear axis. Convective activity will likely be limited to New Mexico 
this afternoon and evening. On Friday, West Texas will be squeezed 
between two upper level ridges: one over the southwestern US and 
another over the southeastern US. This will give us a relative 
weakness in the heights aloft but moisture looks too scant to see 
any convection in West Texas. The upper ridge over the southeastern 
US will start to build west by late Friday and will continue this 
trend on Saturday. The westward moving ridge will contribute to very 
warm temperatures through Saturday but likely shy of advisory 
criteria. A dropoff in the thickness values will come on Sunday as 
the aforementioned ridge intensifies around the 4-corners.

The most notable event for this forecast will be the possibility of 
a cold front and precipitation chances starting early Monday. There 
exists the possibility of intense and widespread precipitation but 
will depend on where the front ends up which is difficult to 
forecast at this timescale in the summertime. However, we will at 
least see cooler temperatures next week with the ridge to the
west.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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