520 FXUS62 KFFC 180737 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 337 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019 .SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/... 500mb analysis shows a broad longwave trough across the east coast. In addition, a weakening complex of showers and thunderstorms across NW AL is associated with a stronger shortwave in the flow. This shortwave will continue to drop southeast today. At the surface, a weak trough is situated across the central CWFA. The hi-res models are struggling with the initialization of the shortwave/complex of storms to the NW. All of the models want to weaken the complex as it continues to drip southward, but are not handling the current convection across northern AL well. Scattered storms should continue through the early morning hours, as there is plenty of moisture and instability to fuel them. Have raised the pops early this morning to reflect current conditions. A strong storm cannot be ruled out early today. As the shortwave drops southeast later today, do think another round of convection is likely, especially during the heat of the day. Have kept the pops in the chance category, as the hi-res models continue to struggle with coverage (and timing). Have leaned a bit more on the wrf than the hrrr for timing. However, if the morning convection is a bit more robust than scattered in coverage, convective development for the afternoon may initiate/linger a bit later than what is currently in the forecast. Do think convection will diminish in coverage coverage with the loss of heating, but could linger into the late evening. The atmos will remain very moist/unstable for Friday (it's July). However, both the surface and mid level troughs will continue across central GA. The troughs may tend to focus precip in their vicinity, so the highest pops have been oriented across the central/south central portion of the CWFA. Plenty of available moisture with PWATS today and Friday 2+". The BL winds both days should average 10kt or less, so slow moving heavy rainers will be likely each day. Good CAPE is expected both days with values 1000+ j/kg. Models are not progging good mid level lapse rates for this afternoon, but do think they are a bit underdone, especially with the shortwave dropping south. The mid level lapse rates are a bit steeper tomorrow. A few strong storms are possible each day, and an isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out either. NListemaa && .LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/... The long term portion of the forecast begins late on Friday with high pressure situated just to the west/northwest of the local area with an area of lower pressure in the vicinity of the southeast that will persist through the weekend. Models are showing differences in location, but overall impacts will be similar through the fist half of the extended with plenty of moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere. This will allow for chances for showers and thunderstorms daily with the best chances/coverage in the afternoons and evenings. At this point, have included likely pops across much of the area on Saturday and chance pops across the area on Sunday with an area of likely pops across the northern tier. With moisture continuing to advect into the area, higher coverage of showers and storms is expected to continue on Monday as well. Likely pops have been included across the northwestern portions of the area with chance pops elsewhere. By late Monday to Tuesday, a front will push into the area continuing to enhance chances for rainfall across the area and dropping temperatures to just below seasonal norms. As that front approaches and enters the area, PWATs are expected to rise to around 2 inches increasing the potential for heavy rain. Likely pops have been included for Monday through Wednesday in the afternoons and evenings with the highest pops across northern portions of the area before spreading southward as the days go on. High temperatures through the weekend are closer to seasonal norms with cooling trend after the weekend through the first half of the work week. Overall, high temps are expected to be in the mid-80s to mid-90s. Overnight low temperatures through the extended will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Reaves && .AVIATION... 06Z Update... Thunderstorm complex moving across northern AL continues to weaken. Do think isold shra will be possible across west GA for the next several hours. Hi-res models do show that the remnants of the system across TN may put out an outflow/convective line that fires sct shra/tsra during the early/mid part of the afternoon. Have tried to nail down the prob group to a 4 hour period that would easily transition to a tempo group. Winds will remain on the west side. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Med confidence convective timing. High confidence remaining elements. NListemaa && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 94 74 93 73 / 40 30 50 30 Atlanta 92 75 91 74 / 40 30 60 30 Blairsville 84 67 85 67 / 40 20 50 20 Cartersville 91 72 91 73 / 40 30 50 20 Columbus 95 76 92 74 / 40 40 70 30 Gainesville 90 73 89 73 / 40 30 50 20 Macon 97 75 94 73 / 40 40 60 30 Rome 92 73 92 73 / 40 20 40 20 Peachtree City 93 74 91 73 / 40 30 60 30 Vidalia 97 75 94 73 / 40 40 50 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...NListemaa LONG TERM....Reaves AVIATION...NListemaa