929 
FXUS63 KFGF 180316
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1016 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1014 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Mid level moisture spreading east across North Dakota. Most of the
storms in western/central ND have weakend but still have a few
around and there is enough support via various short range models
for a few showers or storms overnight into E ND. Instability
parameters are weak overnight in our area and focus for 850 mb
moist advection is south over SD. Therefore doesnt look like a
huge thing but enough for 20-30 pops in E ND into the RRV by 12z
Thu. 



&&

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Thunderstorm coverage tied to peak heating underway and may continue 
to expand before transitioning east this evening. Another mid level 
impulse tracks east into our region overnight, with additional 
showers/storms possibly moving into Devils Lake region (should be 
weaker with less supportive mid level lapse rates/elevated 
instability). Progressive pattern remains in place Thursday-Thursday 
night, and trough axis along Red River could act as focus for 
additional thunderstorm development with severe possible 
(instability recovering along/ahead of approaching shortwave trough. 
This trough is potentially stronger. While severe coverage is 
uncertain (depending on destabilization/recovery), actual 
shower/storm coverage could end up being better as this fast moving 
feature tracks across our CWA. 

Regarding temps: Near seasonal values (lows in lower 60s/highs in 
the low to mid 80s).

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

For Friday through Saturday, a upper level zonal flow pattern 
continues to bring a somewhat active weather pattern to the Northern 
Plains. Overall this looks to be a drier period in the forecast for 
areas north of Hwy 200, but across southeast ND and west central MN, 
chances for showers and storms develop early Friday and through the 
day Saturday. Despite the off and on rain chances, these days do not 
look to be a complete wash. 

The next widespread rain chances build back into the region for 
Saturday night through Sunday night as an impulse aloft traverses 
through the region in northwest flow aloft, but there is low 
confidence in any details regarding potential for severe weather at 
this time. 

Through the weekend and into early next week, upper ridging in the 
South breaks down and strong ridging builds over the Rockies, giving 
way for cooler air to infiltrate the region in northwest flow aloft. 
Through early next week, expect to see temperatures near normal 
values with daytime highs in the 70s to lower 80s and overnight lows 
in the 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 710 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Thunderstorm threat is greatly diminished tonight as CU is
diminishing. Some risk of a shower or t-storm into DVL area
overnight from the west. Otherwise generally good flying weather
thru Thurs AM. Risk of a few storms Thursday midday-aftn with
daytime heating.  


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...BP
AVIATION...Riddle