699 FXUS66 KPDT 170931 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 231 AM PDT Wed Jul 17 2019 .SHORT TERM...Today through Friday. Zonal flow will be present through the end of the work week keeping temperatures at or below normal. While no strong shortwaves are expected to affect the area, scattered showers will remain possible along the crests of the Cascades beginning this afternoon and will continue into Thursday morning. A few stray showers will also be possible in the Blue Mountains late this evening although chances remain very low. One final shortwave is expected to pass north of the forecast area through the day on Friday bringing rather cool temperatures for this time of year. With limited moisture, precipitation is not expected. Gusty winds will be possible both this afternoon/evening as well as again on Thursday afternoon/evening. While winds will remain below advisory criteria, a few gusts between 25-35mph are possible through the Columbia River Gorge and parts of the Kittitas Valley. Richards .LONG TERM...Friday night through Wednesday. Models in good agreement with overall pattern. Westerly flow will dominate the area through Saturday as an elongated upper level trough slowly makes its way through the region. A building upper level ridge and an upper level low west of Vancouver Island will result in general south to southwest upper level flow over the region through the remainder of the extend period. The GFS shows a more amplified pattern producing a more southerly component. This would allow enough mid level moisture for isolated late afternoon/early evening convection beginning Tuesday. The ECMWF shows a less amplified pattern which keeps the flow more southwesterly. This would keep the convective threat east of our CWA. Most of the GFS Ensemble members indicate a more convective pattern too. At this time will only go with a few afternoon/evening buildups Tuesday and Wednesday. However, this pattern will need to be closely monitored as the onset of such a pattern could produce some high-based, dry thunderstorms by the middle of next week. Temperatures will warm quickly to above normal Sunday and remain above normal through the rest of the period. Earle && .AVIATION...Previous discussion...06Z TAFs...Scattered mid level clouds will continue this evening before dissipating overnight. Scattered to broken high level clouds above 20K feet will be present overnight. Tomorrow afternoon and evening scattered to broken ceilings will return at 4-8K feet with scattered to broken mid clouds at 10-15K feet. Winds will remain below 12 kts tonight. Winds will increase again after 15Z tomorrow morning and reach 10-20 kts with gusts to 30 kts at all TAF sites from late morning through early evening before decreasing after 04Z. Perry && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 83 56 79 48 / 10 10 10 0 ALW 84 60 83 53 / 10 20 20 0 PSC 87 60 84 54 / 10 10 0 0 YKM 82 53 79 49 / 10 10 0 0 HRI 85 59 83 52 / 10 10 0 0 ELN 72 52 71 50 / 20 20 0 0 RDM 81 49 79 44 / 0 10 10 0 LGD 81 54 76 48 / 10 20 20 0 GCD 83 53 81 47 / 10 10 10 0 DLS 77 60 77 53 / 10 20 10 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ 75/81/81