381 FXUS65 KABQ 170537 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1137 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2019 .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period with a general clearing of ceilings through the overnight period. BKN-SCT cigs will likely linger in some spots well into the morning. Dry air will round the northern periphery of the upper high into the northwestern quarter of New Mexico Wednesday, shutting down afternoon ts activity there. Moisture will linger south of I-40, with afternoon ts activity over the southern high terrain and along and east of the Sangre de Cristo's, potentially reaching KSRR, KONM, KLVS, KTCC, KRTN, and KCAO. Overall ts coverage is still too low to include at any one TAF location. 24/RJH && .PREV DISCUSSION...323 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2019... .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures have soared into the 90s in many parts of northern and central New Mexico this afternoon with even a few triple digit readings. Additional showers and thunderstorms have also redeveloped over the mountains and nearby highlands. These will continue to sluggishly drift to the east and northeast this evening, filling into some nearby lower elevation locations. Thunderstorm activity will be reduced over northwestern and north central New Mexico Wednesday, but a few storms will be possible over portions of the eastern plains. A drying trend will expand over the remainder of northern New Mexico Thursday through Friday, keeping temperatures hot and slightly above average. Additional moisture is expected to work back into New Mexico late this weekend, offering better rain chances and cooler temperatures by early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Little change has been observed with the weather regime over NM the past couple of days. High pressure aloft is currently over southwestern parts of the state, and the steering flow is quite sluggish, generally to the east or northeast with many cells exhibiting motions of 5 mph or less. Moisture remains sufficiently intact and rather homogeneous with surface dewpoints only ranging from the mid 40's to mid 50's across the forecast area, and this mornings radiosonde suggests PWATs have not strayed much from the one inch mark. As of this writing, temperatures are well on their wary into the 90's and even a few triple digits this afternoon. This morning's HREF run paints scattered convection bouncing around the forecast area through the evening with potential for cells in the ABQ metro area. Have put stock in that and lowered tonight's minimum temperatures in the middle Rio Grande valley. For Wednesday, it still appears that high pressure aloft will nudge a bit farther southwest as the westerlies stiffen over the northern ConUS. The westerly component aloft will be rather weak in NM, but suffice for a quick drying over northwestern and, to some extent, the north central zones. Fewer storms are expected there, but the NAM and the HREF both advertise convective initiation along the northeast highlands with cells rolling into portions of northeastern and east central NM. Storms will also be scattered over the southwestern and south central mountains Wednesday. The dry westerly flow should put the kibosh on any thunderstorms north of the Interstate 40 corridor on Thursday and Friday. PWATs hovering around the 0.4 to 0.6 inch range will likely only support very high-based cumulus and virga. Farther south of Interstate 40, the mountains will be able to exploit higher PWATs with scattered storms. On both Thursday and Friday, temperatures will likely be at their hottest of the week in many locales, and the drier air in the northern half of the state will help readings creep above average by 5 to 10 degrees. High pressure creeps northward over NM on Saturday. Earlier model runs indicated PWATs would gently rise with the relocation of the high, but it is noteworthy that the GFS has reduced Saturday's QPF considerably from 24 hours ago due to a slower arrival of deeper subtropical moisture from the south. This will not offer much temperature relief for Saturday, but that does appear to be in the works Sunday and more-so into early next week. In addition to rising PWATs on Sunday, a wind shift will also enter NM from the northeast (resulting from a synoptic cold front). The ECMWF is not as aggressive as its GFS counterpart with regards to the intrusion of the front and its subsequent forcing for precipitation, however each solution does introduce higher moisture fields and cooler temperatures going into early next week. 52 && .FIRE WEATHER... The center of the mid-level high pressure system will vary around southern NM through the end of the work week, then it is forecast to meander slowly northward across the state this weekend, and strengthen as it moves over CO Monday. An upper level trough crossing the northern Rockies will steer drier air over northwest NM Wednesday, and over the remainder of northern NM Thursday and Friday with little or no thunderstorm activity there. Meanwhile, scattered to isolated convection will linger across the southern tier of mountains, plateaus and adjacent lowlands of the fire weather forecast area. Models show monsoon moisture moving northward across NM as the high pressure center meanders northward this weekend. Showers and storms will begin to increase again Saturday, and especially Sunday as a moist back door cold front plunges southwestward through the state. This front is forecast to reach the AZ border Sunday night as the upper high starts moving into CO. Precipitable water values should peak in the 1 to 1.5 inch range Monday, when showers and thunderstorms should become most widespread as they generally march from east northeast to west southwest across the state. Temperatures will vary from a few to around 10 degrees above normal Wednesday through Saturday. Haines Indices will mostly range from 5 to 6 Thursday and Friday, but they should begin to moderate as the better moisture arrives this weekend. High temperatures will fall with Sunday's back door front, finally bottoming out Monday a few to 6 degrees below normal. 44 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$