534 FNUS53 KAPX 161939 FWFAPX Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan National Weather Service Gaylord MI 339 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 ...Showers & Storms Possible late Wednesday into Thursday... .DISCUSSION...A warm and muggy airmass will continue to dominate northern Michigan weather. Humidity values stay well above critical thresholds for the next several days. Winds will generally be easterly on Wednesday, before turning out of the south and southwest Thursday and Friday. An increasingly humid airmass gets pushed into our region from the south. Shower and storm chances persist through much of the week, especially late Wednesday night into Thursday. MIZ016-017-021>023-099-170815- Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency Counties- 339 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 .TONIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Min Temperature.....61-66. 24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler. Max Humidity........95-100 percent. 24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0). Mixing Height.......100 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Northwest 3 to 9 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in. .WEDNESDAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) until 1200, then mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Max Temperature.....80-85...except 71-76 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler. Min Humidity........47-52 percent. 24 HR Trend......3 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming northeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (290). Mixing Height.......3700 ft agl. Transport Winds.....East 6 to 9 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) until 2400, then mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of showers until 2400. Min Temperature.....63-68. 24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler...except 5 degrees warmer near the coast. Max Humidity........90-95 percent. 24 HR Trend......7 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph . Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10). Mixing Height.......100 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Southeast 9 to 12 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.17 in. .THURSDAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Max Temperature.....83-88...except 73-78 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer. Min Humidity........53-58 percent. 24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up to 24 mph. Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (280). Mixing Height.......1500 ft agl. Transport Winds.....South 15 to 18 mph. Pcpn Amount.........0.07-0.33 in. $$ MIZ018-024-030-036-042-170815- Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac Counties...including Eastern Huron NF- 339 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 .TONIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Min Temperature.....63-68. 24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler. Max Humidity........94-99 percent. 24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming light. Gusts up to 25 mph. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0). Mixing Height.......100 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Northwest 3 to 9 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.09 in. .WEDNESDAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) until 1200, then mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Max Temperature.....80-85...except 64-69 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler. Min Humidity........49-54 percent. 24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph . Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Good (330). Mixing Height.......3100 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Northeast around 9 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) until 2400, then mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of showers. Min Temperature.....60-65. 24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler. Max Humidity........93-98 percent...except 82-87 percent along the coast. 24 HR Trend......Unchanged. 20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming light. Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0). Mixing Height.......0 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Southeast around 6 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in. .THURSDAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Max Temperature.....85-90...except 70-75 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer. Min Humidity........52-57 percent. 24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter...except 1 percent drier along the coast. 20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up to 20 mph. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Good (320). Mixing Height.......1600 ft agl. Transport Winds.....South 9 to 18 mph. Pcpn Amount.........0.02-0.25 in. $$ MIZ020-025>027-170815- Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL- 339 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 .TONIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Min Temperature.....62-67. 24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler. Max Humidity........95-100 percent. 24 HR Trend......9 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph. Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0). Mixing Height.......0 ft agl. Transport Winds.....West around 9 mph shifting to the northeast around 3 mph after midnight. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in. .WEDNESDAY... Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of showers until 1200. slight chance of thunderstorms. chance of showers after 1200. Max Temperature.....83-88...except 70-75 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer. Min Humidity........48-53 percent. 24 HR Trend......Unchanged. 20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming northeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (150). Mixing Height.......4800 ft agl. Transport Winds.....East 3 to 6 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) until 2400, then mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of showers until 2400. Min Temperature.....64-69. 24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer. Max Humidity........93-98 percent...except 82-87 percent along the coast. 24 HR Trend......3 percent drier...except 10 percent drier along the coast. 20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph shifting to the south after midnight. Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (40). Mixing Height.......300 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 15 mph. Pcpn Amount.........0.03-0.21 in. .THURSDAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Max Temperature.....85-90...except 71-76 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......Unchanged. Min Humidity........52-57 percent. 24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts up to 24 mph. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (210). Mixing Height.......1000 ft agl. Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph increasing to around 21 mph in the afternoon. Pcpn Amount.........0.11-0.27 in. $$ MIZ031>033-170815- Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the northern quarter of Manistee NF- 339 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 .TONIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Min Temperature.....63-68. 24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler. Max Humidity........95-100 percent. 24 HR Trend......9 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming light. Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0). Mixing Height.......0 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Southwest 3 to 9 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in. .WEDNESDAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) until 1200, then mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of thunderstorms until 1200. chance of showers. chance of thunderstorms after 1200. Max Temperature.....83-88. 24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer. Min Humidity........48-53 percent. 24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming northeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (140). Mixing Height.......5700 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Northeast 3 to 6 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) until 2400, then mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of showers. Min Temperature.....63-68. 24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer. Max Humidity........93-98 percent. 24 HR Trend......3 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming south around 5 mph after midnight. Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (30). Mixing Height.......300 ft agl. Transport Winds.....South 6 to 12 mph. Pcpn Amount.........0.01-0.15 in. .THURSDAY... Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Max Temperature.....85-90. 24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer. Min Humidity........52-57 percent. 24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts up to 20 mph. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (260). Mixing Height.......1200 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Southeast around 6 mph increasing to south around 21 mph in the afternoon. Pcpn Amount.........0.05-0.18 in. $$ MIZ028-029-034-035-041-170815- Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin Counties...including Western Huron NF- 339 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 .TONIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Min Temperature.....64-69. 24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler. Max Humidity........94-99 percent. 24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0). Mixing Height.......0 ft agl. Transport Winds.....West around 9 mph shifting to the northwest around 3 mph after midnight. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in. .WEDNESDAY... Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Max Temperature.....81-86. 24 HR Trend......Unchanged. Min Humidity........46-51 percent. 24 HR Trend......Unchanged. 20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming northeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (280). Mixing Height.......5400 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Northeast around 6 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) until 2400, then mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of showers. Min Temperature.....62-67. 24 HR Trend......Unchanged. Max Humidity........91-96 percent. 24 HR Trend......3 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming light. Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (30). Mixing Height.......300 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Southeast around 9 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in. .THURSDAY... Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Max Temperature.....85-90. 24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer. Min Humidity........52-57 percent. 24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up to 24 mph. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Good (340). Mixing Height.......1600 ft agl. Transport Winds.....South 9 to 18 mph. Pcpn Amount.........0.02-0.18 in. $$ .EXTENDED... .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS AROUND 80. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. $$ SJ