930 FXUS64 KOHX 152339 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 639 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 .UPDATE... FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... While the center of Tropical Depression Barry is in Arkansas, prcp associated with the system continues to push into our area from the southwest. As building high pressure systems in the Atlantic and southwestern U.S continue to steer Barry's eventual path, expect our weather-pattern to remain very wet and humid over the next few days. Given that this is a tropically-system, SPC does have those west of I-65 included in a Marginal Risk for today and tomorrow. Damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, but the threat does appear to be fairly low. For the remainder of today and into tomorrow, higher PoPs will remain mainly west of I-65, although a few isolated to scattered showers could move through the eastern half of the area. A brief "break" from the consistent showers will likely happen overnight tonight through mid-morning tomorrow before shower/t'storm chances ramp back up tomorrow afternoon. Late Tuesday night into Wednesday continues to look like the day with the greatest prcp chances area-wide. As the upper-level low associated with Barry drifts eastward, it will bring a decent line of showers/t'storms along the TN River before moving through the CWA to our eastern counties. Model PWAT values show values over 2 inches beginning early Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. WPC guidance has those west of I-65 receiving anywhere from 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts possible. While strong thunderstorms could develop, this primarily appears to be a mostly heavy rainfall event. Showers/t'storms should move relatively quickly so widespread flooding is not expected, however, given all of the prcp some have seen the past few days with additional rainfall possible, localized areas could see some ponding of water especially in flood-prone areas. Showers/t'storms will begin to move out of the area by late Wednesday night into the overnight hours. Highs will remain around to just below than normal in the short- term. Temps will be in the mid 80s to near 90 tomorrow and low 80s to upper 80s on Wednesday. While it will be cooler, it will still be very muggy out with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Even though remnants of Barry will have made their way east of Middle Tennessee by Thursday, plenty of moisture will remain over the area along with a return of the heat. And when I say heat, I mean it's going to be HOT for July in Middle Tennessee. Upper ridge looks to build over much of the Central Plains/Ohio Valley mid to late week and head south over the region. There are a few model differences between the GFS/ECMWF as far as how strong this upper high will actually be, so depending on which solution verifies, we will see low to mid 90s versus mid to upper 90s. I know...big difference. Regardless, the GFS definitely keeps the remnants of Barry around helping spark more coverage of showers and thunderstorms which will be a nice cool down (yet ridiculously humid) for those lucky enough to find themselves under an afternoon/evening shower and/or thunderstorm...but these could be few and far between if the ECMWF verifies. With that said, Highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s with Heat Index values nearing 100+ will be the main weather story Thursday through the weekend. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION. Tafs should stay VFR for the majority if not all of the Taf period. A couple isolated showers could linger overnight, but it should be a mainly dry night. Shower activity will pick up during the daylight hours tomorrow especially toward the end of the taf cycle. Thunder was not mentioned, but can't rule out a storm impacting a terminal in the afternoon. Winds will increase out of the south after 14z to 10-15 kts with gusts at BNA, MQY, and CKV to around 23 kts. Gusts will be lighter at CSV. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION......MacDonald/Hurley AVIATION........Reagan