068 FXUS63 KTOP 152301 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 601 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 334 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 As of 20Z Monday afternoon the remnants of Hurricane Barry continue to progress northward through the MS River Valley. At this hour the center of the midlevel low was across northwest AR. An expansive stratocumulus field has developed across eastern KS as low-level moisture streams northwestward on the northern periphery of the midlevel low. A stout EML above 850 mb should preclude any shower/storm development this afternoon and early evening. In addition, the increased cloud cover has tempered temperatures a bit with highs ranging from the low 90s in the west and low to mid 80s across far eastern KS. A quiet night is expected area-wide with cloud cover rotating across eastern KS as the midlevel slowly ejects northward. Overnight lows will reach the upper 60s tonight. The warming trend ensues tomorrow as the remnants of Barry pushing eastward while the midlevel ridge expands across the central US. An attendant 850 mb thermal ridge will overspread the the Central Plains with 850 mb temperatures 21-25 C tomorrow afternoon -- translating to surface temperatures in the low to middle 90s. Factoring in dew points in the upper 60s to near 70 will result in heat indices in the 100 to 105 range, especially across central and north central KS. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 334 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 The heat will further build Wednesday through the remainder of the week into the weekend as the aforementioned thermal ridge overspreads the area. Associated 850 mb temperatures are expected to range from +24 to +29 C, translating to surface temperatures in the mid 90s to low 100s. With little change in low-level moisture, confidence has increase for multiple days of excessive heat. Heat indices are likely to range from 105 to 110 each afternoon Wednesday through Saturday, and possibly Sunday. As a result have issued an Excessive Heat Watch beginning at 1 PM Wednesday through 7 PM Saturday. There is a very slight chance for a shower/storm across far northern KS Wednesday afternoon as a weak midlevel perturbation rounds the ridge across NE. The persistent midlevel ridge looks to break down by late weekend into next week as a trough ejects across the Northern Plains, shunting a surface cool front through the area. GFS/ECMWF guidance suggests the most likely timeframe of the frontal passage would be late Sunday into Monday. This frontal passage could also bring the potential for showers and storms. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday) Issued at 601 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Models show some low level moisture from the remnants of Barry remaining over eastern KS through the night. With the boundary layer decoupling and RAP forecast soundings showing some fog potential, will include a tempo for MVFR VSBY. There could also be some stratocu persist through Tuesday morning. At this point models keep RH values more in line with scattered clouds than one would expect with a CIG. So will just keep a mention of scattered clouds below 3 KFT. The last couple runs of the HRRR have suggested convection from NEB may make a run at northern KS. Unless a strong cold pool develops and drives south, this seems unlikely with forecast soundings showing substantial inhibition with not much moisture advection into north central KS. Something to keep an eye on. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Saturday evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059. && $$ SHORT TERM...Baerg LONG TERM...Baerg AVIATION...Wolters