138 FXUS61 KALY 151801 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 201 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in over New York and New England with fair weather and comfortable humidity levels this afternoon before the next chance for precipitation arrives tomorrow into the mid week. A muggy air mass building in will bring about increasing temperatures and humidity that will last the remainder of the week. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will be possible late in the week into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 125 PM EDT...High pressure continues to ridge in over NY and PA this afternoon. Some cirrus and a few-sct cumulus are migrating over the mid and upper level ridge aloft upstream, but overall expect partly to mostly sunny skies due to the subsidence from the anticyclone and max temps near normal for mid July with upper 70s to lower 80s in the lower elevations with a few mid 80s near KPOU and upper 60s to mid 70s over the higher terrain. The 12Z KALY sounding PWAT is 0.61"...which is well below normal for this date in July. Dewpoints will remain in the comfortable range in the 50 with light north to northeast winds of less than 10 mph. Tonight...The sfc anticyclone drifts south and east of the region after midnight. A period of clear or mostly clear skies should occur with some near ideal radiational cooling conditions. The boundary layer is dry and with a decoupling of the winds we could see temps fall into the 50s to around 60F in a few of the valley areas. Some isolated upper 40s are possible over the southern Adirondacks. Could also see some patchy shallow radiational mist near Lake George south into the Upper Hudson and also east of the southern Green Mtns. Some mid or high clouds drift back in and may limit temps from falling further as a warm front lifts slowly northeast from the OH Valley and Mid Atlantic States. Humidity levels and sfc dewpts will continue to be on the pleasant or comfortable side. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Fairly active period of weather as combination of tropical moisture from remnants of Barry, convective elements from the upper Plains and a frontal zone across the northern Great lakes into the St Lawrence Valley. This front will likely focus the concentrated area of rainfall, just north of the CWA, as the remainder of the region will become embedded with higher anomalous PWATs as 'Barry' transverses the region. Those anomalies are between 2-3 standard deviations above normal beginning later Tuesday afternoon and continuing through Wednesday night. Meanwhile, a look back at the past 30 days of precipitation, our departure from normal with respect to rainfall has been below normal. Given these factors, and per close coordination with WPC, we will place portions of eastern NY into a 'marginal risk' for excessive rainfall. Furthermore, instability parameters become a bit elevated through the short term, with those higher values into the afternoon hours. While we are not outlooked via SPC, forecast BUFKIT profiles hint at some precip loading with those higher PWATs and a wet microburst is indeed possible within heavier convective elements. Looks for high temperatures into the 80s for valley locations with 70s elsewhere, overnight lows mainly into the 60s with lower 70s for valley locations by Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Moisture from the remnants of Barry combined with an approaching upper level impulse from the Ohio Valley should allow showers and embedded thunderstorms to continue Thursday, especially early in the day. There is a possibility that activity decreases in coverage from west to east by afternoon. Locally heavy downpours will remain possible given PWAT's approaching 2". It will be very humid, but actual temps may be tempered by the clouds and rainfall. Current forecast highs are for mid/upper 80s in valleys, and upper 70s/lower 80s across higher elevations, although temps could be warmer should clouds/rain depart sooner. Dewpoints should remain in the upper 60s to lower/mid 70s. Thursday night lows mainly in the 60s to lower 70s with perhaps isolated evening showers/storms possible. Friday-Friday night, the peak of the heat episode looks to occur Friday, when highest temperatures potentially coincide with greatest dewpoints. Deep mixing could allow afternoon dewpoints to "drop" into the upper 60s to around 70, however this potential deep mixing could also allow max temps to reach the mid/upper 90s in many valley areas. This would lead to heat indices potentially reaching 100-105F in valley areas, while upper 80s to lower/mid 90s across higher terrain. Heat advisories will likely be issued for many areas, and it is possible that some excessive heat warnings will be needed. Scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms will be possible, mainly for areas north of I-90. A weak cold front (or dewpoint boundary) should settle south and east later Friday into Friday night. Lows Friday night mainly in the mid 60s to lower/mid 70s. Saturday-Sunday, aforementioned possible dewpoint boundary may settle south of the region, allowing dewpoints to drop slightly into the 60s. However, it should remain quite hot, with highs potentially reaching 90-95 in most valley areas, and perhaps 95-100 within portions of the mid Hudson Valley. Heat indices may be lower than Friday due to slightly lower dewpoints, with generally mid/upper 90s in valleys, and 80s to lower 90s across higher terrain areas. Additional heat advisories will likely be needed for valley locations. Convection may be suppressed should the dewpoint boundary settle south of the region. Overnight lows mainly in the 60s to around 70. Sunday highs may be slightly cooler, but still well above normal, with upper 80s to lower 90s in most valley areas, and upper 70s to lower/mid 80s across higher terrain. Dewpoints mainly in the 60s, with potential for heat indices reaching 90-95 in valley areas, especially south and east of Albany. Convection may remain limited once again, assuming deeper moisture has been suppressed south of the region. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High will continue to be over the region the rest of the afternoon and drift south and east of the region tonight into tomorrow. VFR conditions are expected mainly the next 24 hours ending 18Z/TUE at KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. A brief window of MVFR/IFR mist radiational mist is possible at KGFL/KPSF between 07Z-10Z/TUE. We placed IFR conditions at KGFL and MVFR at KPSF. Otherwise a few-sct cumulus ans sct-bkn thin cirrus will continue this afternoon, and dissipate towards sunset. Expect some mid and high clouds to increase from the west to southwest between 06Z-10Z/TUE. Mid level clouds will be in the 10-15 KFT AGL range in the late morning into the afternoon. Northwest to northeast winds of 5-10 kts will become light to calm around 00Z/TUE. The winds will increase from the south to southwest at 4-8 kts late Tue morning. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure will bring tranquil weather with comfortable humidity levels today before the next chance for precipitation arrives for middle of the week. This will also bring about increasing temperatures and humidity that will last the remainder of the week. RH values will decrease to 40 to 45 percent during the afternoon today then recover to between 80 and 95 percent tonight. The winds will become light and variable to calm into this morning, then west-northwest at 5 to 15 kts by this afternoon. Winds become light and variable tonight with a tendency to become a light southerly wind by Tuesday morning. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrology problems are expected on the main stem rivers in the Albany Hydro Service Area the next several days. Mainly dry weather is expected today into most of tonight, which will allow flows to recede from rainfall yesterday. Moisture and the increase probability for wet weather arrives later Tuesday and through Wednesday night. This will be mainly due to the remnants of Barry lifting through the region. As per the past 30-days, most of the region has been drier than normal. So at this time, per WPC coordination, we will place portions of eastern New York into a marginal risk for excessive rainfall due to anomalous high PWATs and some training of deeper convective cells. Please visit our Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ web page for specific area rivers and lakes observations and forecasts. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BGM/Wasula NEAR TERM...Wasula SHORT TERM...Wasula LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...KL FIRE WEATHER...BGM/Wasula HYDROLOGY...BGM/Wasula