667 FNUS73 KMPX 151149 FWSMPX Spot Forecast for Ouren Piles...USFWS National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 649 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 CDT on July 15. If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Some mid and high clouds early this morning will move away by mid morning, and skies will become mostly sunny. Dry weather is expected today, with a small chance of thunderstorms tonight. Relative humidity values will fall to near 50 percent this afternoon, and could drop a bit lower than forecast (perhaps to around 45 percent) if deeper mixing than expected occurs. Although sustained winds will be from 5 to 10 mph, there will be some gusts near 15 mph at times. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny. Temperature.........74 at ignition...Max 90. RH..................93 percent at ignition...Min 54 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 6 mph at ignition...otherwise Southwest winds 5 to 7 mph. Mixing height.......400 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 400-2200 ft AGL increasing to 2800-4500 ft AGL in the afternoon. Transport winds.....Southwest 14 to 15 mph. Mixing winds........Southwest 14 to 15 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor /5300 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good /50600 knot-ft/ increasing to good (53400 knot-ft) late in the afternoon. Haines Index........3 or very low at ignition...max 5. TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM Temp............74 74 75 77 80 83 85 87 88 89 90 90 RH..............93 90 87 85 77 70 67 63 61 57 54 54 20 FT wind dir..S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT wind spd..6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 20 FT wind gust. 13 11 10 10 8 10 8 8 10 10 Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.6 2.2 2.8 3.3 3.9 4.4 4.5 4.5 Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW Transp wind spd.15 15 15 15 15 15 14 14 15 15 15 14 Mixing wind dir.S S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW Mixing wind spd.15 15 15 15 15 15 14 14 15 15 15 14 Haines index....3 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 SDspl kt-ft/10005 8 11 13 21 28 33 40 51 58 58 53 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Chance of precipitation 30 percent. Temperature.........Min 69. RH..................Max 100 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms. Mixing height.......3100-4500 ft AGL decreasing to 300-1700 ft AGL early in the evening. Transport winds.....West 8 to 14 mph shifting to the north around 14 mph early in the morning. Mixing winds........West 8 to 14 mph shifting to the north around 14 mph early in the morning. Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (14900-53400 knot-ft) decreasing to poor (1800 knot-ft) in the late evening and overnight. TIME (CDT) 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM Temp............88 86 82 79 76 75 73 72 71 70 69 69 RH..............59 61 69 77 82 82 87 90 93 97 100 97 20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W NW N 20 FT wind spd..6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 20 FT wind gust.8 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 Mix hgt (kft)...4.5 3.1 1.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 Transp wind dir.W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W N Transp wind spd.14 13 10 9 8 9 9 8 8 9 12 14 Mixing wind dir.W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W N Mixing wind spd.14 13 10 9 8 9 9 8 8 9 12 14 Haines index....3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 SDspl kt-ft/100053 34 15 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 .TUESDAY... Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. Temperature.........Max 86. RH..................Min 55 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east around 5 mph late in the morning, then becoming light late in the morning becoming east 5 to 6 mph early in the afternoon shifting to the northeast. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms. Mixing height.......400-2000 ft AGL increasing to 2800-4500 ft AGL late in the morning, then increasing to 5600-6800 ft AGL early in the afternoon increasing to 6500-8000 ft AGL late in the afternoon decreasing to 5100 ft AGL. Transport winds.....East 9 to 16 mph decreasing to 2 to 6 mph late in the morning, then shifting to the west 3 to 7 mph early in the afternoon shifting to the north around 9 mph late in the afternoon. Mixing winds........East 9 to 16 mph decreasing to 2 to 6 mph late in the morning, then shifting to the west 3 to 7 mph early in the afternoon shifting to the north around 9 mph late in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (5600-40500 knot-ft). Haines Index........4 to 5 OR or low to or moderate. TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM Temp............70 72 76 79 82 83 85 86 86 86 85 83 RH..............97 90 79 72 65 61 57 55 55 55 57 59 20 FT wind dir..NE NE E E E E E E E SE NE NE 20 FT wind spd..4 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 6 6 6 6 20 FT wind gust.5 6 6 5 5 5 7 8 Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.9 1.5 2.0 2.8 3.6 4.5 5.6 6.8 8.0 6.5 5.1 Transp wind dir.NE NE E E E E E E S SW W N Transp wind spd.16 15 14 13 9 6 3 2 3 5 7 9 Mixing wind dir.NE NE E E E E E E S SW W N Mixing wind spd.16 15 14 13 9 6 3 2 3 5 7 9 Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 SDspl kt-ft/10006 12 17 22 22 18 13 11 21 32 39 41 $$ Forecaster...HULTQUIST Requested by...Alex Galt Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 1912258.0/MPX .EMAIL alex_galt@fws.gov