339 FXUS63 KPAH 150828 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 328 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 328 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Models are trending toward the remnants of Barry becoming less organized a little more quickly then previously forecast. Numerous showers with a few thunderstorms will continue to spread north today, with the best chances/coverage and highest rainfall amounts across our western half of counties. Based on wind fields and heating, we could see some strong to possibly severe storms during the daylight hours. Loss of heating and overall lacking instability tonight will result in a little less coverage and little lower QPF. Widespread showers will continue on Tuesday with the axis of highest QPF gradually shifting east Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as remnants of Barry move across Illinois and the upper trof slides across the middle Mississippi valley. We again could see a few strong to severe storms during the afternoon and early evening on Tuesday. Showers will linger into Wednesday, tapering off from west to east. Overall QPF totals have been lowered a little, with our Flash Flood Watch area seeing from two and a half to four and a quarter inches with localized higher amounts, and the rest of our region in the one to two and a half inch range. Based on the QPF trends, our Watch area still looks good and certainly will not need to be expanded. Except for the QPF adjustments, overall timing and chances are very similar to the previous forecast. Today will be breezier than Tuesday based on Barry sliding just southwest of our region today, then north of the area on Tuesday. Wind gusts today will be in the 25 to 30 mph range for our western counties, tapering down to 15 to 20 mph northeast. Temperatures will be will below normal today, moderating to seasonal readings by Wednesday. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 328 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 A stagnant hot and humid pattern is expected late this week through the upcoming weekend, with little if any precipitation. A strong upper level ridge will expand from coast to coast across the southern two-thirds of the nation on Thursday. This ridge will likely persist at least through Sunday. At lower levels, high pressure will stagnate over the Southeastern states. A hot and humid southwest flow will keep 850 mb temps in the lower 20s. Daytime highs will be in the 90s with overnight lows in the 70s. High dew points in the mid 70s will contribute to a prolonged period of hazardous heat indices. Forecast peak heat indices are around 105 each afternoon through the long term. Precip chances will be very small due to the ridging aloft. However, there is some model variability on Sunday. The gfs continues to indicate a 500 mb trough will develop over the eastern states late in the weekend, which will drive a surface cold front toward our region Sunday. This scenario still has very little support from the ensemble means of either the gfs or the ecmwf. However, it is still enough to warrant a slight chance pop for Sunday given the very moist and unstable atmosphere. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Little change to previous forecast. Kept KOWB and KEVV dry and VFR through the period. Will have a VCSH for much of the period, but the chance of precipitation or non-VFR conditions is too low at this time. Elsewhere, still have a period of IFR conditions with the heaviest rains in the morning at KCGI with MVFR surrounding it there. Similar trends at KPAH and KMVN, but only went down to MVFR levels. Southeast winds will intensify over southeast Missouri through the night, and eventually gusts 20-25kts will develop from southeast Missouri to southern Illinois, including KCGI and KMVN. The strongest winds will be to the south and west of KCGI. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Flash Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Tuesday evening for ILZ088-089-092>094. MO...Flash Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Tuesday evening for MOZ086-087-100-107>112-114. IN...None. KY...Flash Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Tuesday evening for KYZ001>006. && $$ SHORT TERM...RST LONG TERM...MY AVIATION...DRS