073 FXUS63 KIND 150809 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 409 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019 .UPDATE... The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 332 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019 The heat wave will continue today, but the outer bands of Barry will start reaching portions of central Indiana. So, expect slightly higher chances for showers and thunderstorms today and tonight. There will kind of be a break from the high temperatures tomorrow and Wednesday as the bulk of the heavy rainfall from Barry moves through central Indiana, but that break will still mean high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Further out, even higher, dangerous temperatures will return for the extended period with heat index values in the triple digits. && .NEAR TERM /Today/... Issued at 332 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Current radar mosaic shows increasing precipitation bands moving into western Tennessee and Kentucky as the remnants of Barry push farther inland. Meanwhile, the high pressure that has been dominating the central Indiana forecast the last several days has shifted farther northeast. As a result, will trend toward increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms from southwest to northeast across central Indiana after sunrise as isentropic lift strengthens. Additional diurnal heating this afternoon will contribute to pulse storms as temperatures top off in the upper 80s/low 90s. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/... Issued at 332 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019 The main focus of the short term period will be on heavy rainfall with the remnants of Barry on Tuesday and Wednesday. Will continue with the same trend as the near term period of increasing shower and thunderstorm chances from southwest to northeast across central Indiana for Tuesday and Wednesday, too. Latest blended initialization is leaning toward chance pops tonight, and confidence is not high enough to deviate from that. But, would not completely rule out a bit of a lull in activity between the diurnal heating of Monday afternoon and better forcing from Barry around sunrise Tuesday morning. The effects of Barry will really start impacting central Indiana after Tue 12Z with the heaviest rainfall moving through during the Tue 18Z - Thu 00Z time frame. PWAT values remain in the 2.1 to 2.3 inch range. The bulk of the precipitation will end after Thu 00Z with just a few residual showers and thunderstorms possible through Wednesday night. The heat will break a bit on Tuesday and Wednesday, but highs will still remain in the mid to upper 80s. Meanwhile, overnight lows will generally be in the 70s. && .LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/... Issued at 332 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019 With the departure of precip shield mid-week heading into Thursday, expect a return to a dome of high pressure over the region. Ensembles remain in good agreement in the longwave pattern, featuring ridging over the Ohio Valley. This will continue to allow temperatures and humidity to remain warm and relatively dry. The only precipitation that current guidance indicates to occur would be scattered convective kind. The main focus of concern for late this week into the weekend will revolve around the building heat and humidity for the area this weekend into early next week. With recent rainfall earlier in the week, the combination of warm temps will likely translate into heat indices over 100 degrees Thur and Fri for much of Central Indiana. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 15/06Z TAFs/... Issued at 1134 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019 VFR through the period. Increasing heat and humidity and the approach of the remnants of Barry will increase shower and storm chances, especially just beyond this TAF period. Cannot rule out isolated to widely scattered convection tomorrow, but it is too uncertain for an explicit mention at this time. Winds throughout the period will be 10KT or less, and no obstructions to visibility are expected. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TDUD NEAR TERM...TDUD SHORT TERM...TDUD LONG TERM...Beach AVIATION...Nield