976 FXUS66 KPQR 150601 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Service Portland OR 1101 PM PDT Sun Jul 14 2019 .SYNOPSIS...Will see bit cooler weather for next several days, thanks to increasing onshore flow. Weak front will arrive on Monday, with a chance of showers. Better chance of spotty light rain arrives on Wed with bit stronger front. Then, warmer and drier conditions return for later this week, and into next weekend. && .UPDATE...Issued an off-cycle forecast update to increase PoPs into the likely category for our north coastal zones and adjacent higher terrain, as KLGX radar shows numerous showers just about to move onshore. Given cooling cloud tops just offshore all the way down the coast to Florence, there appears to be a decent chance that at least some of these showers will move onshore that far south. Given neutral stability or even some weak instability aloft, would not be surprised if some of the showers hold together east of the Coast Range, especially north of Salem where there will be better forcing aloft. Weagle .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday...Quick update this evening to increase rain chances and cool high temperatures on Monday across the area. This is mainly due to a combination of ensemble guidance and the latest 00z model guidance continuing to suggest at least some light rain falling across portions of the area Monday. With that said, there is some concern that models like the NAM and GFS have misplaced and mistimed precipitation given it's current location via radar and satellite and where it is initialized. Nonetheless, it appears there should be at least enough moisture and weak warm advection moving across the area Monday ahead of a decaying surface low pressure and front to at least have chance PoPs for areas north of a line extending between Waldport and Albany and some likely PoPs near the coast. /Neuman Previous discussion follows...NOAA satellite imagery showing quite a bit of cloudiness offshore. This all associated with a frontal system that is slowly approaching. The parent low, which is about 450 miles west of Astoria, will slowly shift towards Vancouver Island tonight and Monday. The associated front will slowly push to the coast by mid-day Mon, and inland Mon afternoon and evening. So, will see increasing clouds later tonight, but mainly on Mon. But, will also see increasing chance of showers on Mon, with highest chance, albeit still not all that much at 30 to 50 pct PoPs, will be in the afternoon and across areas north of a Newport to Mount Jefferson line. This system will push east of the area Mon night, with decreasing chance of showers. However, will be rather abundant low level moisture left across the region for Mon night and Tue. This, combined with strong onshore flow, will result in lot more clouds for Tue, along with areas of morning drizzle. Clouds will be slower to lift and burn out on Tue, likely not until mid to late afternoon. So, will see bit cooler temps for Tue, with highs in lower to middle 70s inland, and mid 60s along the coast. Another front will arrive on Wed, with increasing clouds through day. Think at moment, rain will stay along the coast, mainly north of Tillamook early in the day, with rain spreading inland through the afternoon. Have boost PoPs to 50 to 60 pct for the Coast and Coast mtns north of Lincoln City, and in the Cascades from Mt Hod northward, and generally 30 to 50 pct PoPs elsewhere. Still bit too early to tell how much rain, but generally be 0.10 to 0.20 over SW Washington, and the northern Oregon Coast Range and in the Cascades around Mt Hood, with less than 0.10 other areas. /Rockey .LONG TERM...Wed Night through Saturday...Models continue to be in fair agreement through the end of the week. Showers decreasing Wed night, but still a chance of showers around region on Thu. Overall, clouds gradually breaking up, with mild temperatures for Thu afternoon. Then, high pres will build, though still not all that strong. Should be enough to keep region dry, with slightly warmer temperatures for Fri through Sun. /Rockey && .AVIATION...VFR conditions overnight, but with increasing high clouds. Will see cigs lower Monday morning, with MVFR/IFR cigs likely along the coast starting between 12Z-15Z and staying MVFR/IFR through all of Monday. Inland should stay VFR through Monday, but model guidance shows cigs could briefly lower to MVFR after 20Z Monday at interior terminals, probably with showers moving over terminals. Have put in a sct025 to reflect the chance, but as confidence is not high in the forecast for showers, there is low confidence in MVFR cigs at interior terminals. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR expected to prevail through tonight and most of Monday. Clouds redevelop and lower to around 5000 feet starting around 18Z Monday. Could see cigs briefly drop to 2500 feet with a passing shower Monday afternoon after 21Z. -McCoy && .MARINE...Broad area of low pressure will persist across the NE Pacific through most of the week. Expect a series of weak fronts to move across the waters, but impacts should be minimal. Models hint at a slightly stronger front moving across the waters around the middle of the week. This mean that there is an outside chance at some marginal advisory gusts to 20 kt. Will be keeping an eye on this and see if these winds will manifest. Otherwise, winds will generally be 15 kt or less through the forecast period. Seas start in the 2 to 4 ft range, then build to around 5 to 7 ft towards the end of the week. /42 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland www.twitter.com/NWSPortland This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. This area is commonly referred to as the forecast area.