424 FXUS61 KBTV 150233 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Burlington VT 1033 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A few showers may be seen through the remainder of the afternoon across the western slopes of the Green and Adirondack Mountains but will dissipate by early this evening. A warming trend will begin on Monday as surface high pressure moves into the region allowing for clear skies to develop. Highs on Monday will be in the upper 70's to lower 80's. Temperatures will then warm a degree or two with each passing day this week with temperatures approaching 90 degrees in some spots by Friday. In addition to this warmth, moisture will begin to surge back into the region on Tuesday with dewpoints expected to climb into the 60s on Tuesday and near 70 degrees through the remainder of the week. This could cause some heat stress issues by late this week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 1024 PM EDT Sunday...Forecast on track with temperatures cooling off nicely this evening. Much of the area has already dropped into the upper 60s with dewpoints in the 50s, so overall quite a pleasant night in store for mid July. Still looking at some upper-level clouds moving in from the northwest, particularly over northern NY, which will temper rate of cooling slightly. On track for overnight lows generally in the 50s, with some low 60s expected in the vicinity of Lake Champlain. Previous discussion...Shower activity today has been pretty underwhelming but that is to be expected with a highly capped environment with plenty of dry air aloft filtering into the region. Nevertheless, a few showers have managed to develop due in large part to the steeper lapse rates brought on by the "cold pocket" aloft. The only source of lift across the regions is the higher terrain as the trough axis has now shifted eastward out of the region. Any lingering shower activity through this afternoon will be likely limited to the western slopes of the Green and Adirondack Mountains. This activity will come to an abrupt halt around sunset as what limited instability is out there wanes and we begin to see synoptic height rises ahead of the approaching ridge of high pressure. Given temperatures are expected to fall quickly with clearing skies expected through the overnight period, areas of fog are expected in climatologically favorite locations across northern New York and east of the Green Mountains. Monday will be the epitome of a beautiful summer day across the North Country with deep layer ridging across the region. Any fog that develops overnight will quickly lift after sunrise with mostly clear skies prevailing through the day. Winds should be fairly light winds northerly winds generally 10 mph or less with the lack of gradient winds or stronger winds aloft to mix down during the afternoon hours. High will be near normal with temperatures warming into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Monday night will also remain dry but cloud cover will begin to build back into the region ahead of an approaching upper level trough. This cloud cover will likely hinder fog from redeveloping Monday night. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 314 PM EDT Sunday...The dry weather comes to an end on Tuesday as ridging flattens out and low pressure slides by well to our north. Warm air advection will take place out ahead of the low, which may spark some showers and thunderstorms Tuesday. However, the best dynamics remain to our north, so don't anticipate much in the way of spatial coverage, especially away from the international border. The airmass behind the warm front will be very humid; PWATs of 1.5-2.0 inches will spread over the North Country. Hence any shower/tstorm activity that does develop will have the capability of producing brief heavy downpours. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s on Tuesday, to be followed by very uncomfortable conditions Tuesday night with dewpoints well into the 60s. Lows will be in the mid 60s to around 70. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 314 PM EDT Sunday...We're looking at a stretch of hot and humid weather for mid to late week, with a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the period. The first precipitation arrives later Wednesday into Thursday with the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry. Moisture surges, increasing PWATs to 2+ inches, so anticipate we could see some heavy rain at times. A series of shortwaves move through the westerly flow aloft thereafter, interacting with the continued moisture and a surface frontal boundary to produce additional shower/tstorm chances through at least the first half of the weekend. The threat for locally heavy rain will continue through the period as well given the moist airmass. The other story will be the heat; both the MEX and Euro MOS guidance are indicating temperatures of 85-90+ by Friday/Saturday, with dewpoints around 70. Heat indices could well approach 100 if this holds true; later shifts will have to watch for the potential of any heat-related headlines. We won't see much relief in the overnights with lows remaining in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 00Z Tuesday...Predominantly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with high pressure building in. Northwesterly winds 5-10 kts will become light and variable overnight. These conditions will favor some patchy fog developing overnight in typical valley locations, but some high and mid-level clouds moving in overnight will prevent fog from becoming widespread. Have included some tempos for reduced visibility to 1-3sm between 08Z and 12Z at KMPV, KRUT, and KSLK. No visibility reductions expected at the remaining TAF sites. After 12Z, any patchy fog will quickly lift and widespread VFR conditions expected through the end of the TAF period. Winds will become northwesterly 5-10 kts after 12Z. Outlook... Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Clay NEAR TERM...Clay/RSD SHORT TERM...Hastings LONG TERM...Hastings AVIATION...RSD