814 FXUS64 KBMX 150008 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 707 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019 .UPDATE... Aviation Discussion. && .SHORT TERM... /Updated at 0300 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019/ This Afternoon and Tonight. A large area of showers and embedded thunderstorms over Mississippi did not make any eastward progress into Alabama until early afternoon. This allowed the air mass to heat up and destabilize more than expected. Surface based CAPE values climbed to between 2500 and 3000 J/KG over west Alabama. Low level winds have remained fairly weak, generally 7 mph or less, so SRH values have not climbed above 100 m2/s2. This will limit tornado potential and the threat will mainly be stronger storms that have the potential to pull down higher winds aloft, and a marginal threat for severe storms will exist through the early evening hours for areas west of I-65. The threat will diminish quickly once we lose daytime heating. Difficult to say how the rain shield along the MS/AL state line will transition once evening arrives, but radar imagery indicates the eastern edge of the rain has been eroding. 58/rose .LONG TERM... /Updated at 0300 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019/ Monday through Saturday. No wholesale changes were made to the extended forecast as trends remain concise with regards to overall synoptic features. After remnants of Barry pivot around Central Alabama into mid/late next week, a large deep-layer ridge is expected to develop across much of the CONUS as a low-amplitude Polar Jet positions near the US/CA border. As such, a hot/humid tropical airmass will reside across the Southeast with diurnal convective rain chances each day as PWs and Tds remain quite elevated in the weak flow regime. As the low/mid- level portions of the ridge strengthens during this time (~594 decameters at 500 mb by Sat), will need to monitor heat indices Thu- Sat as they could exceed 105 F in some locations across Central Alabama. Inclusion in the HWO may be needed in future updates if trends persist for any excessive heat next week. 40/Sizemore && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF Discussion. Several areas of rain and storms continue to rotate northward, on the eastern side of Tropical Depression Barry. Stronger storms will produce heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and wind gusts of 20- 25kts. Have added tempos and prevailing TSRA based on current radar trends, but might need to adjust the timing as activity evolves over the next couple hours. Currently, TCL and ANB are the most likely terminals to be impacted. A gradual decrease in coverage is expected overnight. With moist low level conditions, MVFR stratus is possible around sunrise Monday morning. Another round of showers and storms is possible Monday afternoon. 14 && .FIRE WEATHER... Several waves of showers and storms will be possible through the Monday mainly along and west of I-65 as Tropical Storm Barry moves inland to our west. With this being a tropical airmass, relative humidity values will remain elevated through the period. Low clouds will be possible during the early morning hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 72 88 70 91 72 / 30 30 20 30 20 Anniston 73 89 71 91 73 / 30 20 10 20 10 Birmingham 74 88 73 91 74 / 40 40 20 30 20 Tuscaloosa 74 85 72 91 74 / 50 60 20 30 20 Calera 72 87 71 91 72 / 40 40 20 20 20 Auburn 74 89 72 91 73 / 20 20 10 20 10 Montgomery 74 91 72 93 73 / 30 30 10 20 10 Troy 73 91 71 93 71 / 30 20 10 20 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$