994 FXUS61 KBGM 142327 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 727 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure has brought dry weather and mostly clear skies, that will last through Monday evening. A weak storm moving out of the Central U.S. is expected to spread warmer, more humid conditions into NY and PA Tuesday, along with an increased risk of thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 220 pm update... Only minor changes to the forecast this period. Very little happening with high pressure moving through CNY/NEPA on Monday. This has dry air at all levels giving us mainly clear skies until Monday night. Cumulus today will disappear late today as the afternoon heating wanes. Tonight will be clear with light to calm winds. Low level winds below the boundary layer are under 20 mph. River valley fog is likely in south central NY and NEPA late tonight. This will burn off by 9 AM leaving mostly sunny skies again. Temperatures tonight will radiate into the 50s. The Finger Lakes and Wyoming Valley will be the warmest in the upper 50s. Monday's highs will be similar to today with upper 70s and lower 80s. Monday night clouds start to increase at mid and upper levels. This moisture is ahead of one system moving across southeast Ontario. Moisture well ahead of the remnants of Barry could also come in late from the Ohio Valley. With the fist system further north the Finger Lakes and western Mohawk Valley should stay dry. Low temperatures a little warmer from the mid 50s to lo 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday, mainly during the afternoon-evening as a frontal boundary moves through the area. That being said, the overall coverage will not be very much and therefore kept POPs at less than 50 percent. In fact, Northeast PA to the Catskills-Oneonta areas may receive nothing at all. It will be very warm and increasingly more humid during the day on Tuesday. Highs will likely mostly be in the mid to upper 80s, with a few spots in the valley locations potentially reaching the lower 90s. Some lingering showers or thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday evening, before the area likely briefly dries out for most of the remainder of the night. It will be remaining humid with lows mostly in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Then more showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday, especially during the afternoon and Wednesday night as a wave of low pressure moves through, potentially with some additional tropical moisture from the remnants of Barry. It remains uncertain if there will be a threat for excessive rainfall. This will continue to be monitored as we get closer. Highs on Wednesday will likely range from the lower to upper 80s with lows Wednesday night mainly in the mid 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Overall, a somewhat unsettled period is forecast with several chances of showers and thunderstorms. It will also be very warm and humid period as well. Heat Advisories may need to be issued late in the week, especially Friday if the current forecast pans out. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on Thursday as a frontal boundary remains nearby, along with some possible lingering moisture from the remnants of Barry. In terms of cloud cover, expecting a mostly cloudy start to the day, becoming partly sunny during the afternoon. Highs will likely be in the mid to upper 80s along with humid conditions. Then a mostly dry night is expected Thursday night with perhaps a few lingering showers or a thunderstorm. Lows are forecast to be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. There will be a chance for some showers and thunderstorms once again on Friday (mainly afternoon) as another weak wave approaches. Otherwise, partly sunny skies are expected. The bigger story for Friday will likely be the continuing heat and humidity. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are currently expected, along with elevated dewpoints. If this forecast holds together, this would be the most likely day for seeing potential Heat Advisories issued. Although some showers or thunderstorms associated with diurnal heating cannot be ruled out on Saturday, at this time, it appears to be a mostly dry day with partly sunny skies. It will continue to be very warm and humid with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. A frontal boundary may move through the area on Sunday, although this is highly uncertain considering this is still 8 days away. Should this frontal boundary move through, scattered showers and thunderstorms would be possible. Otherwise, expecting another partly sunny day. At this time, it appears temperatures may be slightly cooler on Sunday with highs mostly in the mid to upper 80s. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with one exception. Valley fog late tonight is likely at ELM resulting in LIFR. Light winds and clear skies will allow the cold air to collect in the valley with fog developing around 07Z, clearing out rapidly after sunrise. With high pressure building overhead, generally light winds expected for the next 24 hrs. Outlook... Monday night...VFR. Tuesday through Friday...Occasional brief restrictions possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms, though with chances a bit higher on Wednesday and Thursday. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...TAC SHORT TERM...BJG LONG TERM...BJG AVIATION...DGM/TAC