678 FXUS62 KMHX 141353 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 953 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A typical summer surface pattern will develop this week with high pressure over the Atlantic and a trough of low pressure inland. This will produce a southerly flow of hot and humid air across Eastern North Carolina this week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should occur mainly in the afternoons and evenings each day. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 950 AM Sun...Eastern NC will be on the southern end of an upper trough across the Northeast and northern mid- Atlantic states which will bring WNW downslope flow across the area. At the surface, high pressure will be centered well offshore with lee troughing across the piedmont. Hot and humid conditions are expected again today, and once low/high clouds over the area clear, temps will climb quickly into the 90s. Have high temps reaching the mid to upper 90s inland, and the upper 80s to low 90s along the coast. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire area as the combination of the hot temps and humidity will lead to heat index values of 105 to 110. There will be some slight chances for showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon, but not expecting anything very robust or long lived. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... As of 345 AM Sunday...Any convection should quickly dissipate early in the evening with loss of sfc heating and continued subsidence aloft. Continued mild temps with lows in the mid 70s inland to upper 70s coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 330 AM Sunday...A typical summer surface pattern will develop this week with high pressure over the Atlantic and a trough of low pressure inland. This will produce a southerly flow of hot and humid air across Eastern North Carolina this week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should occur mainly in the afternoons and evenings each day. Monday through Wednesday...Hot and humid weather is expected with a mainly afternoon/evening diurnal convective regime. 850 MB temps are forecast to be AOA 20C which would support daily highs in the low to mid 90s. The combination of the heat and humidity will produce Heat Index values around 105 degrees each afternoon. The WPC Maximum Heat Index and Probability charts forecast a >40% chance of reaching the 105 Heat Index degree threshold and forecasts Heat Index values of 105-110 over portions of Eastern NC each day through Sat. Though upper ridging should tend to limit convective development, will continue 20-30% PoPs as the models continue to depict precipitation. Lows will be very sultry in the mid to upper 70s. Thursday through Saturday...The remnants of TC Barry are progged to become absorbed into mid-level westerlies as it lifts into the Ohio River Valley Wednesday with the mid-level circulation opening up into a wave and pushing across the East Coast Thursday with the weakening surface low lifting north of the area along a front. Continued unstable across the area with an increase in moisture which should result in a better chance for showers and storms across the area, though most models lift the deepest moisture north of the area. Continued hot and humid with highs in the low to mid 90s and Heat Index values around 105 degrees. Sultry lows mainly in the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term /Through tonight/... As of 730 AM Sunday...Pred VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. An area of IFR/LIFR stratus across southern rtes expected to dissipate by 13-14Z. Only isolated afternoon convection expected today, mainly along the sea breeze. Patchy light fog or stratus is possible again late tonight. Long Term /Monday through Thursday/... As of 330 AM Sunday...Typical summertime pattern this period with high pressure offshore and a trough of low pressure inland with mainly isold to widely sct afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog or stratus will be possible each early each morning, esp for areas that receive any rain. && .MARINE... Short Term /Through Tonight/... As of 4 AM Sunday...High pressure will be centered well offshore with troughing inland through the short term. Light/Variable winds this morning becomes SE to S around 10 kt or less this afternoon, then veers to S to SW tonight. Seas will mainly be 3 ft or less. Long Term /Monday through Thursday/... As of 330 AM Sunday...Excellent boating conditions are expected through Wed with winds 15 kt or less and seas 2-3 ft. Mon S winds will 5-10 kt except for the northern waters when a weak boundary causes winds to become E 5-10 kt. Tue S/SE around 10 kt. Wed winds increase slightly to 10-15 kt in the afternoon. Seas will be 2-3 ft through Wed. On Thu the gradient is forecast to tighten as the remnants of Barry pass to the north resulting in stronger SW winds 15-20 kt and seas building to 3-5 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>047- 079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SGK SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...JME/EH AVIATION...JME/SK MARINE...JME/SK