501 FXUS62 KMHX 130816 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 416 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will slowly meander south into northern portions of the area today then eventually dissipate tonight. An inland trough pattern will then set up into mid next week, with hot and drier conditions expected. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 320 AM Sat...Eastern NC will remain under a weakness aloft between strong upper sub-tropical ridges over the front range and western Atlantic. In the northwest flow aloft a series of weak pertubations will move southeast across the area, interacting with a weak cold front drifting into northern areas and the sea breeze further south, to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The models typically have a difficult time this time of year discerning coverage/location of convection and yesterday we were quite overdone in depicting this, most likely due to the atmosphere being worked over Thu night and the extensive debris clouds which limited insolation. Today will be different as only isolated activity is occuring early this morning and cloud cover is not as extensive. It will remain very unstable with MUCAPES around 4000 J/kg and PW values AOA 2". Despite weak shear, some of the CAM's such as the 3km NAM are indicating strong convection developing across eastern NC this afternoon into early evening with the strongest storms along the front to the north and in vicinity of the sea breeze. Even though our area is not outlooked for severe weather, isolated wet microbursts will be possible. Torrential downpours could produce localized flooding in areas of frequent shower activity. It will be hot and humid again, with highs reaching the low to mid 90s inland, and the upper 80s along the coast. Factoring in the humidity, Heat Index values will reach the low 100s this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 320 AM Sat...Showers and storms should dissipate rapidly with loss of heating this evening with only an isolated shower or storm possible overnight. Since we are forecasting a decent coverage of showers and storms in the afternoon and early evening, will follow the cooler guidance for lows inland /low to mid 70s/ while the coast will remain very muggy with lows in the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 AM Saturday...Scattered showers and storms expected Saturday as a cold front becoming stationary over the area then hot and humid late weekend into mid next as the front dissipates with only isolated to widely scattered showers and storms. Sunday through Wednesday...Bermuda high pressure will persist offshore and a sfc trough inland. WNW flow continues aloft Sunday into Monday bringing downslope flow and greater subsidence with the absence of shortwave energy and expect only isol to widely sct afternoon convection, mainly along the sea breeze or sfc trough, which models show briefly moving into ENC Monday. Upper ridging builds over the area as we move into mid- week which will continue to bring limited, mainly afternoon and evening convection and continue to advertise PoPs around 20-30%. The heat will continue with highs in the low/mid 90s with heat indices generally 100-105 degrees each afternoon. Lows will mainly be in the mid to upper 70s. Thursday and Friday...The remnants of TC Barry are progged to become absorbed into mid-level westerlies as it lifts into the Ohio River Valley Wednesday with the mid-level circulation opening up into a wave and push across the East Coast Thursday with the weakening surface low lifting north of the area along a front. Continued unstable across the area with an increase in moisture may bring a better chance for showers and storms across the area, though most models lift the deepest moisture north of the area. Upper ridging begins to build in from the west Friday with typical diurnally driven convection expected. The heat continues with highs expected in the mid 90s inland to upper 80s/low 90s coast. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term /through Tonight/... As of 320 AM Sat...VFR conditions should prevail through the morning with only shallow fog possible early. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected this afternoon into early evening with periods of sub VFR conditions. Overnight mainly VFR conditions will occur with only a small chance for fog to develop inland late. Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 345 AM Saturday...Typical summertime pattern this period with high pressure offshore and a trough of low pressure inland with mainly isol to widely sct showers and thunderstorms. Forcing will be limited to convergence along the sea breeze or inland trough, which may briefly push into the area Monday. Patchy fog or stratus will be possible each early each morning, esp for areas that receive any rain. && .MARINE... Short Term /Through Tonight/... As of 320 AM Sat...Moderate SW flow 15-20 kt with a few gusts to 25 kt continues across the waters this morning. Winds are forecast to become W and diminish to 10-15 kt toward dawn. Will maintain the SCA central waters where seas at 41025 continue at 6 ft but will discontinue southern waters as seas have been running at 5 ft. Winds will become SW around 15 kt this afternoon with seas becoming 2-4 ft throughout. Tonight SW winds 10-15 kt become W 5-10 kt with seas subsiding to 1-3 ft. Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 4 AM Saturday...High pressure will be centered offshore with a trough of low pressure inland through the period. Generally, decent boating conditions expected with S to SW winds around 15 kt or less and seas around 2-3 ft Sunday. The trough is expected to move into ENC Mon into early Tue with winds generally less than 10 kt and may become NE to E across portions of the northern waters, with seas around 1 to 2 ft. The trough pushes back inland late Tue and Wed with winds becoming S to SW around 15 kt or less once again and seas building to around 2 to 3 ft && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for AMZ152- 154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...JME SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...EH/SK AVIATION...JME/SK MARINE...JME/SK