228 FXUS61 KCAR 130114 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 914 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in from the west tonight and slide south of the region on Saturday. A cold front will approach Saturday evening and cross the area late Saturday night. High pressure builds to the south of the region Monday and Tuesday with a trough to cross Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 9:14 pm update: Isolated to scattered showers are evident on area radars mainly to the north of Bangor. Very little in the way of cloud electrification showing up on the GLM or vertically integrated ice. The threat of lightning, although not zero, is very low. It is a muggy night with areas of fog along and near the coast. Updated the PoPs for the rest of tonight based on the latest radar and near term model trends. Otherwise, only some minor adjustments were made based on the latest observations and expected conditions the remainder of the night. Previous discussion: The cold front that moved through the area today will be moving into New Brunswick shortly after the start of the period tonight. Higher pressure will build into the region behind the front. The high pressure will quickly transit across the region and into the Gulf of Maine by the end of the period. Another cold frontal system will move into western Maine at the end of the period bringing another round of showers to the area. The models they were in good agreement overall through the short term of the forecast period. Loaded a blend of the GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM to smooth out the minor differences in the models. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Our focus Saturday evening will be on a cold front approaching from the northwest as an upper level trough of low pressure slides into Quebec. Some showers and embedded thunderstorms will be likely ahead of the front over the northwest Saturday evening and the rest of the area later Saturday night. Given the timing of the front, the best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be across the northwest with storms likely diminishing as they move through the area overnight. The trough will slide away to the southeast on Sunday as an upper trough slides over the area with the upper low centered nearby to the north. Cool air pooled aloft will result in spotty showers and isolated thunderstorms over the north on Sunday. The upper low will slide east into the Maritimes Sunday night into Monday. This will allow for a sunnier day on Monday with high pressure building south of the area. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will remain to our south Monday night and Tuesday bringing a continuation of dry weather with a warm day on Tuesday. The next weather disturbance to approach will come Tuesday night with increasing clouds and a chance for some spotty showers. The best chance for showers will likely again be in western areas where the air will be most unstable as the showers approach. A weak surface trough crossing the area will bring spotty showers and isolated thunderstorms on Wednesday. The best chance for showers appears to be Downeast, with subsidence from a ridge moving into Quebec likely limiting showers over the north. A zonal long wave pattern with more disturbances moving in from the west appears likely to continue into Thursday and perhaps Friday keeping the weather somewhat unstable with a continued chance for spotty showers and thunderstorms. We will have to keep watch on where the remnant moisture from tropical storm Barry tracks toward the end of the week. The latest guidance suggests the main body of moisture will round the ridge and slide off the Mid-Atlc or SE coast. However, some tropical moisture pushing north of the system may get pulled into one of the zonal shortwaves as it tracks through the upper Midwest, to enhance shower activity over our area Thursday or Friday. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Predominately LIFR to IFR conditions the remainder of the night. Improving conditions after sunrise Saturday with VFR by early to mid morning Saturday. Increasing clouds Saturday afternoon as a cold front approaches western Maine towards the end of the period. SHORT TERM: Mostly VFR conditions are expected Saturday night through Sunday with the exception of any showers or thunderstorms briefly dropping conditions to MVFR or IFR, mostly across the north. VFR conditions are then expected Sunday night through Tuesday night. VFR to occasionally MVFR conditions are likely Wednesday in possible scattered thundershowers. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The wind and seas below Small Craft Advisory levels through the period. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are expected to be below SCA Saturday night through Wednesday. Fog and mist may limit visibilities over the water at times, especially over the weekend. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Saturday through Saturday evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...CB/Norton Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...CB/Norton/Bloomer Marine...CB/Norton/Bloomer