889 FXUS64 KBMX 122033 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 333 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 .SHORT TERM... /Updated at 0319 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019/ This Afternoon and Tonight. A feeder band moving northward out of south Alabama has broken up and weakened considerably since early afternoon. As with most tropical feeder bands, lightning has been limited. Reduced rain chances most areas for the remainder of the afternoon and changed to predominately showers. There is another feeder band across southwest Alabama. However, none of the hi-res models show much QPF overnight, so will keep rain chances on the low side. 58/rose .LONG TERM... /Updated at 0349 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019/ Saturday through Thursday. As Barry moves northward along the Mississippi River on Saturday, a wide area of 2.00-2.25 inch PWAT values will move inland as well. Bands of northward moving showers and storms should develop across our forecast area, and the greatest coverage should occur from the late morning into the afternoon. As stronger wind fields move into our southwestern counties, a tornado threat may develop with the strongest convection. As daytime heating wanes, rainfall activity should contract closer to Barry's center on Saturday night, affecting areas mainly west of I-65. If Barry continues to track northward along the Mississippi River, Sunday could feature an enhanced tornado potential as a swath of 45- 55 kt 850 mb flow and backed surface winds contribute to enlarged hodographs along and west of I-65. Any westward deviation in the track may pull the tornado threat out of our forecast area. Depending on the remaining strength of 850 mb flow, a non-zero tornado potential could continue into Monday for our northwestern counties as the remnants of Barry pass to the northwest. While the heaviest rainfall is expected to remain across Mississippi during the Saturday through Monday period, amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected in West Alabama. Any eastward shift in the forecast track could result in rainfall amounts of 4-8 inches and a potential for areal and/or flash flooding. Rain chances should into the 30-50 percent range for Tuesday through Thursday as post-tropical Barry moves away from the region. However, persistent southwesterly flow and a moist airmass should result in daily scattered showers and storms. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF Discussion. Tropical Storm Barry, located off the Louisiana coast, will be the main player in the weather conds thru the period. A feeder band is currently tracking northward across south Alabama. As with most tropical systems lightning is very limited, so only used VCTS at KTOI and forecast lower vsbys with showers. If the band holds together, instability will be greater north and included VCTS at northern TAF sites. Updates for northern TAF sites will be issued once timing of line can be determined. Once line pushes north of each airport, only scattered showers expected thru 00z. With loss of daytime heating, remaining showers should dissipate and did not carry showers overnight. Low cigs expected shortly after sunrise with cig heights arnd 1000 feet agl. Sct showers will develop after 15z. 58/rose && .FIRE WEATHER... Several waves of showers and storms will be possible through the weekend and into early next week, as a tropical disturbance in the northern Gulf of Mexico moves northward through portions of the southeastern U.S. Above normal rain chances continue through at least Monday. With this being a tropical airmass, relative humidity values will remain elevated through the period. A brief period of low clouds is possible each day, around sunrise, while low level moisture remains high. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 72 87 71 83 70 / 30 60 30 50 60 Anniston 73 86 72 84 71 / 30 60 20 50 50 Birmingham 74 88 73 83 72 / 30 70 30 60 60 Tuscaloosa 75 87 73 83 73 / 30 80 50 80 70 Calera 72 85 71 83 71 / 30 70 40 60 60 Auburn 72 86 72 84 72 / 20 60 20 50 40 Montgomery 74 86 73 86 73 / 20 70 30 60 40 Troy 73 86 72 86 72 / 20 60 30 50 40 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$