696 FXUS63 KILX 121538 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1038 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1038 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 High pressure is dominating the weather across central Illinois this morning...providing sunny skies and low relative humidity values. With only a few diurnal clouds expected, afternoon high temperatures will top out in the middle 80s. Current forecast is right on track and requires no major update at this time. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 Predawn surface map shows a cold front over se parts of OH/KY into mid TN, while weak 1016 mb high pressure ridge from central WI, thru southeast IA and sw into eastern KS. Clear skies prevailed across IL early this morning with light to calm winds over central and NW IL, and NNE to NE winds less than 10 mph over southeast IL. Less humid conditions over the area early this morning with dewpoints in the 59-65F range. Temps were in the low to mid 60s over much of central IL while upper 60s/lower 70s in southeast IL. A nice mid summer day expected over central and southeast IL with ample sunshine and light winds as weak high pressure ridge settles se over the area this afternoon. Not too humid today with dewpoints mostly in the lower 60s. Highs similar to yesterday mostly in the mid 80s. Weak surface ridge drifts over the Ohio river valley overnight, bringing fair skies and light winds to CWA. Lows in the low to mid 60s tonight, coolest in eastern/se IL closer to high pressure ridge with light to calm winds. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 A strong 594 dm 500 mb subtropical high over the 4 corners to expand mid/upper level ridge into the Midwest and IL this weekend. This will bring hot and more humid conditions to the area starting this weekend and continue thru much of next work week. Highs around 90F Saturday with afternoon heat indices in the low to mid 90s as dewpoints rise to 65-70F. Mostly sunny skies Saturday with a few more clouds over northern CWA closer to frontal boundary moving into the southern Great lakes, but keeps its convection chances north/ne of CWA. Fair weather Sat night with milder lows in the upper 60s to near 70F. A weak frontal boundary will be ne of CWA Sat night into Sunday with our area staying in warm sector. Hot and humid Sunday with highs in the lower 90s and afternoon heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. Have a slight chance of a showers/thunderstorms during mid/late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night along and south of highway 50. Tropical storm Barry over the north central Gulf of Mexico is forecast to track northwest toward the central LA coast by 7 am Saturday as a strong tropical storm. Remnants of Barry then tracks northward into ne AR by sunset Monday and to near Evansville in sw IN by sunset Tue. This will spread convection chances further north into central and especially southeast IL Tue into Wed, then diminish to the east Wed night. Rainfall amounts could reach over 1 inch in far southeast IL, while the IL river valley to see little or no rainfall from Barry. Increased clouds and convection chances to keep temps a bit cooler over southeast IL Mon with upper 80s, while lower 90s from I-72 north. Highs Tue in the mid 80s southeast IL and around 90F northern/nw CWA. Highs Wed in the lower 90s west of I-57 and upper 80s to near 90F east of I-57. Heat and humidity to build during 2nd half of next week as upper level ridge dominates area. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 559 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow morning, under the influence of high pressure. Increasing dewpoints will bring the chance of scattered cumulus to form, but subsident synoptic forcing under the ridge will preclude any ceilings from developing. The NAM continues to advertise some patchy fog later tonight for SPI/DEC/CMI, but confidence is low that MVFR conditions will develop at any TAF location. Winds will be light and variable today under the weak pressure gradient. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Barnes SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Shimon