027 FXUS61 KBTV 120609 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Burlington VT 209 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019 .SYNOPSIS... The threat of thunderstorms has come to an end early this morning with scattered to numerous showers lingering over Vermont. Eventually these showers will come to an end...but scattered showers are expected once again this afternoon...mainly across Vermont. Dry weather is expected tonight and Saturday as high pressure builds into the region. A trough of low pressure will move across eastern Canada and this should bring a few showers to northern New York and the northern half of Vermont Saturday night into early Sunday morning. High temperatures will be right around seasonal normals today...above normal on Saturday...and then return to seasonal normals on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 209 AM EDT Friday...Threat of thunderstorms has come to an end with just some lingering showers over Vermont early this morning. Enough mid and high level clouds to limit the development of low clouds and fog. Only minor tweaks needed...otherwise going forecast in good shape. Previous Discussion... A few showers will remain possible overnight as the actual front is located across far western Lake Ontario and does not reach our area until Friday morning. Lows are expected to be in the 60s. Diurnal destabilization is possible across eastern VT, so showers and a few storms could pop up east of the Greens the mid-afternoon before the front clears the region Friday evening. With the front across the area, temperatures will be slightly cooler. Highs will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s, and overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 PM EDT Thursday...On Saturday a cold front will approach from the west and cross our forecast area during the late afternoon into the overnight. Not a lot of moisture associated with this system, and dynamics aren't too impressive with surface low passing well to our north. Chance for PoPs in Northern New York from about 2pm onwards, and starting around 6pm from the Champlain valley eastward. Best chance for showers will be along the international border, closest to the low passing well north. Upper level trough also pushes across the area Saturday night enhancing chance for showers. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 430 PM EDT Thursday...From Sunday through early Tuesday drier and more seasonable temperatures are expected with another surface ridge moving across the region. Another warming trend will begin on Tuesday as flow becomes more west southwesterly. On Tuesday a low pressure system will lift well North of the region into eastern Canada, and a weak cold front approaches our area Tuesday night. This front will cross our area Wednesday, then become stationary across New England and become a focus for showers as shortwaves move along the boundary through the end of the week. Temperatures will be near 90 from Tuesday through Thursday across parts of our forecast area, especially the bigger warmer valleys. Will have to monitor for heat advisory potentially needed. Showers and thunderstorms could keep temperatures below criteria. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 06Z Saturday...Overall looking at VFR conditions through much of the period as mid and high level clouds linger over much of the area. The only exception to this is KMSS where some clear skies and light winds will allow for low clouds and fog to develop. Thus looking at the possibility of IFR conditions between 07z and 11z. Scattered showers are expected early this morning and again this afternoon over Vermont...but visibilities will generally be in the VFR category. No precipitation is expected after 00z. Winds will be light early this morning...then become west and northwest later this morning at speeds under 10 knots. Outlook... Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haynes NEAR TERM...Evenson/Haynes SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Evenson