689 FXUS64 KHUN 111142 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 642 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019 .UPDATE... For 12Z TAFS. && .NEAR TERM...(Today) Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019 Much of the attention continues to be directed towards the north cntrl Gulf, where a tropical depression continues to develop. This disturbance is xpcted to become Tropical Storm Barry later today as it drifts further to the WNW. For now, this system is xpcted to have little impact on the mid TN Valley, although that could certainly change heading into the weekend period. For the latest information of this developing tropical system, refer to latest advisories/products issued by the NOAA National Hurricane Center. Closer to home, quiet/very mild wx conditions prevail across the area this early Thu morning, with temp trends mainly in the mid/upper 70s. Even with abundant mid/high clouds in place across much of the cntrl TN Valley, temps should be able to quickly rebound with the onset of daytime heating. Another seasonably warm day is xpcted for the area, as afternoon highs climb well into the lower 90s and max heat indices increase into the 100-105F range for locations along/west of I-65 in north AL, which is similar to the past couple of days. As a result, a Heat Advisory remains in effect from noon thru 7 pm for at least one more day. There may be some relief in sight from the excessive heat going more into the afternoon hrs, as a weak frontal boundary settles into the area from the NW. Scattered to perhaps numerous showers/tstms look to develop along/ahead of this approaching front later today, which should bring some welcome rainfall to parts/if not much of the mid TN Valley heading into the evening hrs. .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019 The front should generally remain stalled invof the area maintaining an unsettled wx pattern thru the end of the work week. In addition, bands of showers/tstms rotating nwwd around the tropical system to the S/W should also begin to cross the region, resulting in a fairly wet pattern for the cntrl TN Valley. With the increase in rainfall, overall temps be closer to seasonal trends/if not a few degrees cooler, with lows tonight/Fri night predom in the lower 70s while afternoon highs Fri trend more in the upper 80s/near 90F. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019 Forecast uncertainty remains fairly high regarding the track of Potential Tropical Cyclone 2. Latest model runs have shifted the track slightly eastward, with model to model consistency relatively low. As is typical, the exact track of this storm will determine the impacts over the TN Valley. The further west the track, the less the impacts, whereas a more easterly track will pose greater impacts. Sticking with the official NHC track, the tropical system will make landfall along the central Gulf Coast on Saturday and slowly move northward afternoon and evening hours. The track keeps it west of the Mississippi River as it weakens and moves into northern Louisiana on Sunday. It cannot be stated enough, however, that there is still a great deal of uncertainty regarding the overall track and strength of this system. As some of the latest model runs point to a more easterly track, all interests in the TN Valley should continue to monitor the latest forecast heading into the weekend. If, and this is a big if, there is a more easterly shift in the track, the greatest impacts to the local area would come on Sunday and Sunday night. In terms of the forecast for the TN Valley through the long term period, we will see an increase in showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, as tropical moisture increases over the local area and a boundary moving from the north begins to stall over the area. The synoptic forcing will be limited, so this activity will diminish Saturday evening as we lose our daytime heating. On Sunday, at least scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with a higher chance over our western counties. Similar conditions are expected on Monday, before rain chances begin to decrease as the tropical system moves into the Mid Mississippi Valley Monday night. Again, it's too soon to pinpoint exact impacts, but we could at least see a localized heavy rain threat moving into the weekend. Temperatures through the period may be on the cool side, as the cloud cover and precip limit daytime heating. Sticking close to blended guidance, temps should be able to warm into the mid to upper 80s on Saturday, but then only warm into the lower 80s on Sunday and Monday. A warming trend will begin on Tuesday, with highs warming closer to seasonal norms. Overnight lows through the period will be mild, with temps falling into the lower 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 642 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019 A few shra/tsra are beginning to develop this early Thu morning, as a weak frontal boundary approaches from the NW. Rainfall is xpcted to increase later this morning, as the front begins to settle into the area. Some of these shra/tsra may impact the two main terminals later today, with brief reductions in cigs/vis. Rainfall may then taper off heading into the evening hrs with VFR conds prevailing into early Fri morning. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ001>007-016. TN...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...09 SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM...73 AVIATION...09 For more information please visit our website at weather.gov/huntsville.