234 FXUS62 KCHS 091717 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 117 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will stall over the region today, then linger nearby through Thursday. Another front will drop through the area on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... This Afternoon: Aloft, mid/upper lvl forcing remains weak between high pressure over the Atlantic and to the west. At the sfc, a stationary front remains draped southwest to northeast across inland areas, providing a focal point of convergence for shower and thunderstorm activity heading into peak diurnal heating. Deep moisture advecting onshore and from the south around a broad sfc low will be more than sufficient to support showers and thunderstorms through at least late afternoon and perhaps into early evening. Given the setup and primary forcing mechanisms, greatest precip coverage is anticipated away from the coast, where scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are currently forecast. Closer to the coast, locations should remain mainly dry as a seabreeze shifts inland, but a stray shower or thunderstorm can not be ruled out. As in previous days, the severe weather threat will remain low given weak shear across the area and lack of significant upper-lvl support. However, weak steering winds and deep moisture characterized by PWATs between 2.00-2.25 inches could support locally heavy rainfall during a slow- moving thunderstorm. High temps should range in the upper 80s to lower 90s across Southeast South Carolina (warmest away from coast before the onset of convection) and in the lower to possibly middle 90s across Southeast Georgia. Tonight: Evening convection should be concentrated across interior portions of the forecast area and trend further inland with time. Then late tonight, as the surface low starts to organize over the northeast Gulf of Mexico, a spoke of surface troughing is progged to rotate around it and move towards the Southeast coast. The forecast features steadily increasing rain chances from east to west, with the highest chances staying over the coastal waters. By sunrise Wednesday, chances along the coast increase into the 30-40 percent range. Lows should range from the low 70s inland to the upper 70s at the coast. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The stalled front will persist over the area through Wednesday before shifting inland Thursday into Friday. Aloft a weak trough will persist. Plenty of moisture will remain in place through the period with PWATs at or above 2". At least scattered showers and tstms are expected each day, especially during the daytime hours. The best coverage is anticipated on Wednesday when the front is closer by. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Another front will drop through the area on Saturday, potentially shifting to the south by Sunday with slightly drier air briefly working in from the north. Atlantic high pressure will gradually build early next week. Convection will transition to a more isolated/scattered coverage by late weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Overall, expect VFR conditions to prevail. This afternoon, models are consistent in keeping showers and thunderstorms just inland of the terminals. KCHS will likely have the best chance of taking a direct hit from a shower or thunderstorm. Added a VCTS at 19z but kept the forecast VFR. Late tonight, could see some patchy stratus around but confidence is too low to include any ceilings. Also, the chance for showers and thunderstorms to approach from off the coastal waters will increase. Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible due to scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the daytime. && .MARINE... This Afternoon through Tonight: The coastal waters will remain situated between high pressure offshore and a weak front that remains mainly stationary over land. The pattern will favor southeast winds in the 10-15 kt range. Winds should then slowly weaken during the overnight period. Seas should range between 2-3 ft across nearshore waters and 3-4 ft in offshore Georgia waters. Southwest winds will be enhanced Thursday through Friday night as another front approaches the waters from the northwest though we currently show winds just below advisory criteria. Otherwise a fairly typical summertime pattern will exist with S to SW winds at or below 15 kt and daily sea breeze circulations. && .EQUIPMENT... The KCLX radar has experienced a hardware failure. Data will be intermittent until further notice. It is unknown at this time when data will be fully restored. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...DPB SHORT TERM...JRL LONG TERM...JRL AVIATION...DPB/JRL MARINE...DPB/JRL EQUIPMENT...