757 FXUS64 KSJT 091107 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 607 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019 .AVIATION... /|12Z TAFS/ VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals over the next 24 hours. Winds will be out of the south-southeast between 6 to 12 knots. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 444 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019/ SHORT TERM... (Today) A few stray afternoon thunderstorms possible, with hot temperatures... We will continue to see the possibility of surface based convection across the area this afternoon. Coverage should be limited compared to what we have seen the previous afternoons, with the upper level ridge building across West Central Texas. The bigger weather headline for today will be the increasing temperatures and high humidity making for heat index values to climb above 100 degrees for many locations this afternoon. Locations that have seen rain in the previous days will have their temperatures moderated and should see highs in the mid 90s, while other locations who have not seen as much rain, will warm into the upper 90s. The area will be monitored for the potential issuance of a heat advisory. By the evening, any ongoing convection will begin to dissipate and an overall quiet and warm evening will prevail across West Central Texas. Overnight lows will be in the mid 70s. LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Wednesday will be the second of the two hottest days in this forecast. The upper high will become recentered over Colorado/New Mexico and strengthen on Wedneaday. Highs Wednesday are expected to be in the upper 90s to 101 degrees across most of our area, with afternoon heat indices mostly in the upper 90s to 104. Could have heat indices around 105 for part of the afternoon in some of our eastern counties, with 105 (heat index) being the threshold for Heat Advisory in our area. Given the marginal circumstance, prefer to await subsequent model data and see what happens with temperatures/ heat indices today, before issuing a Heat Advisory for Wednesday. People who work outdoors or who have outdoor plans will want to take the needed precautions for heat safety. Low rain chances return for Wednesday night and Thursday. An upper trough is progged to move east across portions of the Midwest on Wednesday, with trailing portion of associated cold front moving south of the Red River late Wednesday night. With the approach of this weak front into a moist and unstable airmass, and with the possibility of a weak embedded disturbance tracking southwest into our area (on the southeastern periphery of the upper high) after Midnight, carrying slight chance PoP for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night. Surface high shifting southeast across the central Plains should give what is left of the weak cold frontal boundary a nudge south across our area, during the day Thursday. Carrying low PoPs for showers and thunderstorms across much of the southeastern half of our area on Thursday. Friday into the weekend, the upper high will remain centered over Colorado/New Mexico, with our area on its southeatern periphery. Indications are for this high to be in close enough proximity to be our dominant weather influence, with dry weather expected. A steady state pattern in temperatures is indicated, with daily highs expected to be close to normal for this point in July. Later this week, potential will exist for a tropical system to develop over the northern Gulf of Mexico. During the weekend into Monday of next week, uncertainty is high on what may be the eventual track of a tropical system from the northern Gulf of Mexico. As just a brief mention at this time, the 00Z and GFS and ECMWF in general have an overall northward track which would result in subsident pattern for our area. Moving ahead to later this week and into the weekend, the National Hurricane Center will have the latest information and forecast details on this system. At this point, little change in our temperatures is expected in the Saturday to Monday time frame. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 99 75 100 74 / 0 0 5 20 San Angelo 100 74 100 72 / 5 5 10 20 Junction 97 75 100 72 / 10 5 10 20 Brownwood 97 75 97 74 / 10 5 10 20 Sweetwater 100 75 100 73 / 0 5 5 20 Ozona 98 73 97 71 / 10 5 10 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 99/99/40