532 FXUS64 KMOB 081200 AAA AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 700 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... 12Z issuance...Mostly VFR conditions through 09.12z. Could see brief periods of MVFR cigs and visibilities mainly in and around scattered showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and early this evening. Winds will be northwest at 5 to 10 knots early today shifting southwest to west at 10 to 15 knots with slightly higher gusts this afternoon and early this evening becoming northwest at 5 knots or less late this evening and overnight. 32/ee && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 446 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019/ NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday night/...A weak mid to upper trof generally stretching from the Appalachians to the coastal waters of NWFL and AL will shift southeast and break off as a closed low over the eastern FL Panhandle and adjacent Gulf waters by 12z Tue, moving further south then tracking west later in the week. Near the sfc a weak trof extending from the mid Atlantic States to the Eastern FL Panhandle early this morning will also break off to the south as a broad area of low pressure stretching from the FL Big Bend to the north central Gulf states by 12z Tue. With this pattern better moisture in the lower levels will continue to advect north and west across the forecast area through tonight leading to slightly higher heat index values late this morning and this afternoon. At this time heat indices look to remain just below the 108 F criteria but will have to be monitored closely today especially along the immediate coast. With this pattern the best chance for measurable rain continues to be over eastern and coastal sections of the forecast area due to the position of the upper system tracking to the southeast and the weak surface trof dropping southward towards the coast. Model soundings continue to show marginal surface based instability with higher than normal lapse rates in the lower levels combined with good forcing aloft in the mid levels suggesting a few strong thunderstorms will still be possible this afternoon and evening with gusty straightline winds and frequent lightning being the main threats. With the better moisture in the lower levels, pwats around 2 inches, locally heavy rainfall will also be possible with some of the heavier showers or thunderstorms late this afternoon and early this evening. Temperatures will continue to be above average through tonight with highs today ranging from the middle to upper 90s for most inland areas and the lower to middle 90s along the immediate coast. Lows tonight will range from the mid to upper 70s for most inland areas and the upper 70s to lower 80s along the immediate coast. 32/ee SHORT TERM /Tuesday Through Wednesday night/...The shortwave trough currently lying east to west over central Alabama is projected to move southward over the northern Gulf and develop into a closed low. A trough of surface low pressure will linger linger over the region Tuesday serving as a focus for afternoon convection. Spectral models appear to be coming to a general consensus in deepening an area of low pressure over the northern Gulf Tuesday night and slowly tracking it westward. Anticipate that shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase Wednesday especially closer to the coast and linger into the evening hours. Increased cloud cover and convection over the region may provide for some relief from the afternoon heat at least over our more coastal counties. Afternoon temperatures are forecast to generally range from the mid to upper 90s with heat indices of 102 to 108 with locally higher values possible. Wednesday's high temperatures were trended downward a couple of degrees and forecast to climb generally into the low to mid 90s Wednesday. /08 LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...Models begin to diverge on the projected evolution of the modeled tropical low over the northern Gulf. The GFS and ECMWF operational models are now in reasonable agreement with tracking it westward across the northern Gulf toward the Texas coast. The GFS ensemble members also favor a westward track. Although there remains some variance among the GFS ensemble members as several turn it northward. The ECMWF ensemble members also tend to favor a westward track but has more spread among its members on how far west. The GEM starts out west but then takes a northeastward track. The UKMET also favors an initial westward track but then transitions to a northeastward track. There still remains a great deal of uncertainty as to the track and eventual intensity of this projected feature. However, confidence is increasing that a tropical system will develop over the northern Gulf. NHC's 5-day Tropical Weather Outlook at 2 AM EDT is projecting a 70 percent probability of development. For now, have trended this forecast toward the operational GFS and ECMWF solution of tracking the system westward over the northern Gulf waters. With this track, the biggest potential impacts would increased showers and thunderstorms especially near the coast through Saturday. Increasing onshore flow and swell could lead to a high risk of rip currents by Thursday along Gulf beaches. Dangerous marine conditions should also be anticipated. As previously discussed, there still remains a great deal of uncertainty as to how this system will evolve. The expected impacts will also evolve as certainty increases regarding the strength and movement of this area of low pressure. /08 MARINE...A persistent flow mostly from the west northwest will continue over the marine area through mid week as a broad surface ridge of high pressure continues along the Texas coast and over the northwest Gulf. A moderate to strong easterly flow will be likely later in the week as an area of low pressure develops over the northeast Gulf and moves west. Mariners should keep up with the latest updates on this developing system. Winds and seas will be stronger near isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the week. 32/ee && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob