873 
FXUS63 KOAX 080829
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
329 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019

Large scale pattern has amplified over the last 24hrs going from 
near zonal over the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest to a ridge 
extending into Canada. Upstream closed circulation was centered 
along the BC/WA border with a deep trough extending down the western 
U.S. coast. Meanwhile, the Central Plains was under the influence of 
high pressure centered over the western Great Lakes. Regional PW 
chart from the 08/00z run was showing values generally 125-135% of 
normal over the CEntral Plains. 

Models have been consistent showing scattered afternoon 
convection developing along axis of MLCAPE ranging from 1500-2500 
J/kg. More specific, activity is progged to fire initially over 
southwest NE/northwest KS on nose of steep sfc-3km lapse rate. 

Upper support via RRQ jet divergence and diffluent flow aloft along 
with series of impulses accompanying a shortwave trof will be on 
hand to support convection. 

Thunderstorm activity will expand across the afternoon/nighttime 
hours and intensify with onset of strengthening low level jet. Good 
moisture feed will allow PW values to just over 2", setting the 
stage for generous rainfall amounts to be seen across most of the 
CWA by Tuesday morning. 
 
Another round of thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday 
afternoon/night in part to a stout shortwave trof dragging a cold 
front into the Central Plains. Models are in reasonable agreement 
convection will develop along the boundary as it approaches western 
IA where moisture/instability will be most prevalent. 

Stable air mass filtering in behind exiting front on Wednesday will 
translate to very pleasant conditions. 

Afternoon highs today through Wednesday will be in the low/mid 80s. 
 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019

Dry conditions expected heading into next weekend. Precip chances 
return Friday night through Sunday in part to a shortwave trough 
ejecting out of the central Rockies.  

Highs Thursday will be in the low/mid 80s. Highs around 90 then 
Friday through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019

IFR conditions should prevail for the forecast period. There may
be intermittent periods of MVFR conditions between 14-17Z as some
low clouds move across eastern Nebraska. Monday night, there is a
chance of thunderstorms starting at around 0Z. The chances for
storms are best at the end of the TAF period (0-6Z) and will be 
included in TAFs as confidence increases in their timing and 
location.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Fajman