113 
FXUS63 KFSD 080330
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1030 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019

Relatively quiet and pleasant conditions have prevailed today as a 
surface high pressure slides east of the region. Cloud cover will 
continue to decrease as a MCV over north-central NE/south central SD 
weakens. Afternoon heating and some lingering forcing/instability 
may produce some spotty showers or a few thunderstorms over south 
central SD into the Missouri River Valley this afternoon into early 
evening. 

Upper level ridge slides east of the forecast area tonight, while a 
closed mid-level low moves over the Pacific northwest. As this 
closed low pressure moves into the northern Rockies, different 
shortwaves will develop across the region, with the first of them 
moving northward over south central SD late tonight into Monday. 
This along with an increasing LLJ (30 to 45 knots) will help to 
spark scattered thunderstorms, mainly along and west of the I-29 
corridor throughout the day. Highs will remain in the 80s, with 
breezy southerly winds. 

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019

Thunderstorm chances increase Monday night into Tuesday night as a 
surface front moves over the Dakotas in advance of the mid-level 
low. Models continue to bring most of the precipitation north of 
the forecast area; however sufficient instability and moderate 
shear will help to spark a few strong storms. SPC highlights well 
this potential on its Day 3 with a marginal risk. Will continue 
to monitor this potential as the main upper trough evolves through
the northern Plains. 

Beyond Wednesday, pattern transitions to northwesterly flow aloft 
as an upper level ridge settles over the Four Corners. Wednesday 
will be dry, under breezy northwest winds. Relatively dry 
conditions and near to normal temperatures continue through the 
end of the week. Upper level pattern changes by the upcoming week
with zonal flow aloft, resulting in different vort maxima over 
the region. There is little agreement in timing and strength of 
these waves rotating through the region; therefore did not make 
meaningful chances to the precipitation chances. With the upper 
ridge moving across the region Wednesday into the weekend, 
temperatures will range from the upper 80s to low 90s. Warmest 
readings will be possible through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1026 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019

Occasionally breezy southeasterly winds will continue at KHON
overnight and at KFSD/KSUX into the day Monday. Winds off the
surface at KHON appear just under LLWS criteria but may still be
notable. A few showers or thunderstorms are possible late tonight
into the morning hours with KHON and KFSD standing the best
chances at seeing any of this activity. Additional thunderstorms
are expected to develop across central SD by late afternoon and
evening Monday, perhaps impacting KHON. Kept mention during the
TAF period limited to VCSH as confidence in TS details is low. 

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...Kalin