842 
FXUS64 KMEG 072028
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
328 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019

.DISCUSSION...

An upper trof which produced showers and thunderstorms earlier
today has now moved east of the region. Convection has been
limited around the region as a result, and will likely remain so 
through the evening hours. The latest surface observations depict 
a weak front situated over the region. This feature could spawn a
few thunderstorms along it as it eases south. Temperatures have 
warmed into the upper 80s to lower 90s around the region and will 
cool into the mid 70s overnight. 

As the upper trof continues to march SE away from the region, 
upper high pressure will build into the region on Monday. This 
will dampen diurnal convection chances for early in the week. 
Temperatures will only be near 90 on Monday afternoon in the wake 
of weak surface frontal passage. However, as the upper ridge 
becomes more situated over the region by midweek, temperatures 
will climb into the mid 90s by Wednesday. This will also create 
concerns for triple digit heat indices, with values in excess of 
105 possible on Wednesday. Wednesday will feature the next best 
chance for afternoon thunderstorm activity as the upper ridge 
breaks down as a surface front approaches the region from the NW.

The quick moving front ushers a cooler and drier airmass in by
late Thursday. This will keep POPs low and temperatures in the
upper 80s to lower 90s for late week into next weekend. The
dry, continental nature of the airmass settling into the region
from the north will eradicate triple digit heat indices after
Thursday. By next weekend models begin to have trouble with a
potential tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. The ECMWF
continues to bring the system into the Mid-South next weekend,
producing showers and thunderstorms, while the Canadian and GFS 
take the storm well to the east, keeping the region mostly dry.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24+ hours.
Isolated thunderstorms may result in brief periods of IFR cigs and
VIS this afternoon/evening, most likely near TUP. 

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$