321 FXUS63 KTOP 072013 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 313 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019 20Z water vapor imagery shows broad anticyclonic flow over the southern and central plains. For a change there does not appear to be any remnant MCV near by. Meanwhile the center of the upper high looks to be over the western Red River Valley. Further west an upper low was noted over southern portions of British Columbia with an upper trough extending into central CO and NV. At the surface, weak high pressure centered over WI was ridging into central KS. There was not a lot of dry air with the high pressure as dewpoints remained in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Some weak confluence at the surface in western MO and east central KS had promoted the development of a few showers. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019 For the rest of this afternoon and overnight, the shower potential over east central KS is likely to wane with the loss of daytime heating. So an isolated shower or storm will remain possible until about 8 or 9 pm. The lack of any dynamics progged to impact the area and the low level jet focused across the high plains should keep precip west of the forecast area overnight. Have continued with a persistence forecast for lows tonight since there isn't a big change in airmass. So think temps will bottom out around 70. Models continue to show a low amplitude wave lifting across the central plains Monday and Monday night. Although there isn't much or a PV anomaly or strong vorticity advection. Nevertheless the warm and moist airmass over the area should not require a great deal of forcing for scattered storms. Deep layer shear continues to look pretty weak with 0-6km shear values mainly around 20KT. So the main concern with the thunderstorms looks to be the potential for locally heavy rainfall. There is a good consensus that precipitable water values will increase to around 2 inches by Monday afternoon. So storms should again be efficient at producing rain. Since the forcing is not all that strong and there isn't much of a surface feature to focus upright convection, coverage of storms is in question through the day Monday. Models actually show better chances overnight Monday as a second more compact shortwave moves out across southern KS. So have POPs slowly ramping up through the day Monday with the higher POPs during the overnight hours. Highs Monday should be similar to todays if not a little warmer with readings in the mid 80s to around 90. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019 Tuesday could see some lingering precip in the morning. Its unclear if more storms could develop in the afternoon as models show westerly flow with possible perturbations within the flow. Some solutions try to develop additional storms while others keep dry weather for the afternoon and into the evening. Think there will be at least some chance with models showing plenty of instability through the day and into the evening. Then on Wednesday a northern stream shortwave is expected to bring another front through the forecast area. The national blend of models is suspiciously dry on Wednesday even though models pool dewpoints in the lower 70s along it and show CAPE values in excess of 4000 J/kg. The operational NAM and GFS show some potential for storms along the boundary through the afternoon over eastern KS. So have included a chance POP as the frontal boundary moves through. There does not appear to be a great deal of cold air advection with the front. So highs Wednesday are forecast to still be in the mid 80s to around 90. For Wednesday night through Sunday, models show a strong consensus for the upper ridge to amplify over the central Rockies with decent mid level height rises across the central plains. This should push the mean westerlies further north and limit precip chances for the area. It should also allow temps to warm up after a brief stint of temps in the 80s for Thursday. Highs are expected to be in the middle 90s with heat indices flirting with 100 for the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019 VFR conditions are expected to persist through the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Present cu field could show some vertical growth this afternoon as temps continue to warm. Some could grow tall enough to produce rain and lightning, but if that occurs it would be isolated in coverage. Thus, no mention of TS in TAFS at this time. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Wolters SHORT TERM...Wolters LONG TERM...Wolters AVIATION...Teefey