661 
FXUS63 KTOP 070451
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1151 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2019

19Z water vapor and profiler data has shown a weak vort max that 
was over central KS becoming less defined during the past couple 
of hours with the main cyclonic circulation now apparent over 
central OK. The synoptic pattern continues to show the center of 
the upper ridge off the TX gulf coast with an upper trough still 
over the northwestern U.S. At the surface, a weak ridge of high 
pressure had moved south through the southern high plains. A weak 
frontal boundary / wind shift has move through much of the area 
with north and northeast winds over the area. 

&&

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2019

For tonight through Sunday night, have backed off on the POPs 
with much of the guidance showing weak ridging at the surface and 
850MB. There is not expected to be much of a low level jet to 
speak of and there isn't an obvious wave upstream of the forecast 
area to trigger storms. So think once the boundary layer 
stabilizes this evening, precip chances will be less than 20 
percent. There may be a few storms still pop up across east 
central Kansas this afternoon as the CAMs indicate. This is where 
obs continue to show some surface based instability. But the 
overnight hours should for the most part be dry. The weak ridging 
is progged to remain over the area for Sunday with not much 
indication of return flow setting up until late Sunday night or 
Monday morning. So again precip chances look to be slight at best.
Lows tonight should fall into the upper 60s. There is some 
potential for patchy fog overnight if skies are able to clear out.
At this point I don't anticipate it being very widespread. Later 
shifts can monitor trends to see if fog potential increases. An 
easterly component to the low level winds is progged to persist 
through the day Sunday. With no real warm air advection going on, 
highs should remain mild with readings in the mid 80s. 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday) 
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2019

For Monday and Tuesday, models prog a low amplitude shortwave 
lifting from the southern Rockies into the central plains while 
low level moisture returns north. Think this may be the next good 
chance for precip. And the potential for heavy rain and possible 
flooding should continue as precipitable waters increase back to 
around 2 inches. Deep layer shear Monday afternoon and Monday 
night continues to look rather marginal in the 20 to 30 KT range. 
So severe convection doesn't look obvious. Temps should see a 
warming trend with the return flow. Highs Tuesday look to be 
around 90. 

By Wednesday models show the upper level ridge amplifying over the 
Rockies. A northern stream shortwave is expected to bring a surface 
front through the forecast area Wednesday morning. The boundary is 
forecast to shunt the deeper moisture south and east. This along 
with rising heights is expected to bring a dry period to the area 
for Thursday through Saturday. A brief cool down is likely Thursday 
with highs only in the 80s. But temps are expected to bounce back 
into the 90s for Friday and Saturday. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2019

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Shallow ground
fog is possible near dawn, especially at TOP and MHK, although
confidence is too low to introduce reduced vsby at this time. 
Otherwise, winds will slowly veer to an easterly direction through
the day with speeds near 5 kts. 

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Baerg