459 FXUS65 KABQ 061143 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 543 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2019 .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE Storms will likely impact KTCC and possibly KROW this morning, with strong and erratic wind gusts and potential for short-lived MVFR conditions. A more robust round of convection is forecast later this afternoon/evening, with impacts likely at KABQ, KAEG, KSAF, KLVS and KTCC. Lower probabilities of thunderstorm impacts at our remaining TAF sites. Convective outflow will likely result in another east canyon wind at KABQ this evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, although patches of MVFR cigs are possible early Sunday morning. Mountain obscurations will become more common overnight into Sunday morning. 11 && .PREV DISCUSSION...326 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2019... .SYNOPSIS... Moisture has made its way back into much of New Mexico this morning. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon as a result. Locally heavy rainfall is possible, mainly for the eastern half of the state. Another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms is forecast for Sunday with locally heavy rainfall possible. With increased cloud cover, high temperatures will remain below average through the weekend. A warming and drying trend gets underway Monday and continues through mid week. && .DISCUSSION... Convection still going strong over east-central NM this morning with over an inch of rainfall recorded at the Tucumcari Airport. Low- level moisture has surged westward and northward setting the stage for later today. A warm-core upper low over southeast AZ will lift northward helping to get scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms going relatively early. Brisk steering flow will keep widespread heavy rain in check but storm training could be an issue, primarily from the crest of the central mountain eastward. 40kts of jet level flow will once again create the potential for strong to severe storms, mainly east of the central mountain chain. Sunday looks very similar to today with another warm- core low/trough moving up from the south combining with PWATs which are near record levels for the date. Upper wave lifts off to the east Sunday night and drier air aloft ahead of an unseasonably strong trough/low moving ashore over WA moves in. Temperatures also rise to slightly above average by Tuesday as the high builds back over NM. Wednesday looks like the hottest day of the week for all but the far northeast where a backdoor front moves in. Low-level moisture moves back in behind the above mentioned boundary and developing return (sely) flow. Operational GFS suggesting eastern NM is the favored area for thunderstorms Thursday afternoon with the ECWMF in pretty good agreement. The agreement between the models fades away Friday with the GFS shifting the upper high eastward over northeast NM while the ECWMF moves it westward over AZ. 33 && .FIRE WEATHER... A moistening trend is in play this weekend and will result in good chances for wetting storms and below normal daytime temperatures as the upper high backs out of the state and a weak west coast trough makes slow eastward progress. The best chances will be along and immediately east of the central mountain chain, but just about anywhere along and east of the Continental Divide could see wetting rain. A warming and drying trend will begin Monday and continue through at least Wednesday as the upper high builds back over the state. Expect an increase in Haines values each day as the atmosphere becomes increasingly hot, dry and unstable. The upper high is forecast continue overhead through the end of the work-week, but sufficient low layer moisture may seep under the upper high circulation to fuel limited rounds of wetting storms Thu/Fri. 11 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 33