974 FXUS62 KFFC 061139 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 739 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 406 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019/ SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/... The center of the ridge over the northwest Gulf will continue shifting westward into the Southern Plains as additional upper ridging remains over the western Atlantic through the short term. The local area remains situated between these features, bringing continued chances for largely diurnal convection. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage once again this afternoon with daytime heating. Though some drier mid-level air (and slightly lower PWs in the ~1.5" range) may help limit convective coverage a bit as compared to yesterday, especially across the northwest half of the area, scattered showers and thunderstorms are still anticipated. As was the case yesterday, an isolated strong or severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out with frequent lightning and gusty winds as well as locally heavy rainfall. While some activity may again linger into the overnight hours, overall coverage will gradually diminish. On Sunday, showers and thunderstorms will again develop with daytime heating. Coverage may be enhanced Sunday afternoon, especially across north Georgia, as a weak shortwave over the Tennessee Valley shifts southeastward. Outside of showers and thunderstorms, temperatures will remain hot and steamy with widespread highs in the low to mid 90s. Combined with persistent 70s dewpoints, heat indices will exceed 100 for many locations. Current forecast maximum heat indices each afternoon remain just below the 105 degree Heat Advisory criteria in portions of central Georgia. Regardless, appropriate precautions should still be taken if venturing outdoors in the heat. RW LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/... The center of the upper ridge will remain to our west through the first of the week. A weak surface boundary across GA will extend into the Carolinas. This seems to be associated with a weak upper trough under the ridge. Toward the end of the period the ECMWF still tries to develop a tropical system in the northern Gulf. The GFS on this run is showing only weak broad low pressure near the FL panhandle. Not enough confidence at this time to favor either solution. So in general...persistence will prevail with mostly a diurnal pattern to the convection each day. Considering the weak boundary across the state...afternoon pops have been kept a bit higher across central. Continued warm temperatures with heat index values just below heat advisory criteria each day. 41 && .AVIATION... 12Z Update... Patchy IFR cigs have periodically affected some TAF sites this morning but have become diffuse at most ATL area sites. Scattering of any remaining IFR cigs will continue through mid-morning with VFR predominant at all sites thereafter. Scattered shra/tsra chances will increase during the afternoon with the most favored time frame generally from 19-24z. Light and variable winds this morning will be west to southwest at 6 kts or lower through the day. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... Medium confidence on morning cig trends. High confidence on other elements. RW && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 92 72 91 72 / 50 40 40 40 Atlanta 92 74 89 73 / 40 30 60 40 Blairsville 85 66 84 66 / 50 30 60 40 Cartersville 93 71 89 71 / 40 30 60 40 Columbus 95 75 93 74 / 40 20 50 50 Gainesville 89 72 89 72 / 50 30 60 40 Macon 93 74 93 73 / 50 40 50 40 Rome 93 72 90 71 / 40 30 60 40 Peachtree City 93 73 90 72 / 40 30 60 40 Vidalia 90 74 93 74 / 60 40 50 40 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...RW