521 
FXUS63 KICT 052033
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
333 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

Tonight:
Challenging summer forecasts continue with outflow boundary at
late afternoon roughly parallel and a bit south of Highway 400.
This boundary has slowed to a crawl in the west, but still pushing
south across southeast KS. Anticipate this boundary will be
primary focus for storms through sunset, with both severe
downburst winds and heavy rain/flooding potential. Later this
evening, anticipate combo of rich moisture spreading back north as
outflow retreats and modest increase in low level jet will result
in development of storms somewhere south of i-70 in western half 
of KS. These storms will subsequently move into the forecast area 
overnight. 

Saturday:
Given that none of the models handled today's convection very
well, confidence in precipitation forecast on Saturday is low. 
Robust overnight convection would significantly limit chances in 
the morning, assuming cold pool pushes effective boundary into OK,
otherwise may be left with festering showers in the vicinity of 
boundary throughout the morning. Diurnal heating and isolated 
storms are possible in the afternoon. Temperatures of course will 
be dependent on cloud cover/precipitation and hedged closer to 
census on Saturday.

Sunday-Monday:
Dirty ridge will continue through at least Monday, signaling poor
forecastability. Rounds of storms are probable, more likely coming
off High Plains during the night with isolated afternoon storms.
High temperatures will be highly dependent on clouds and
precipitation. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

Shortwave moving through Northern Plains will flatten ridge at 
the onset of the period. This may allow front to push well south 
of the area, providing some reprieve from heating/precipitation 
after one last nocturnal MCS Tuesday night. -Howerton 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

Expect scattered to numerous thunderstorms to impact mainly
southern Kansas this afternoon and evening in vicinity of a nearly
stalled outflow boundary. Pockets of large hail, damaging winds
and intense rainfall rates are possible. Another round of
thunderstorms is possible somewhere across the region tonight, as
activity rolls southeast out of western Kansas. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    72  94  73  90 /  40  30  40  30 
Hutchinson      71  91  71  89 /  50  30  40  30 
Newton          71  89  71  89 /  50  30  40  40 
ElDorado        72  91  71  88 /  40  30  40  40 
Winfield-KWLD   72  93  71  90 /  40  30  40  30 
Russell         70  88  70  87 /  60  40  60  40 
Great Bend      70  89  70  87 /  50  40  50  30 
Salina          71  88  71  88 /  50  40  50  40 
McPherson       71  88  71  88 /  50  40  50  40 
Coffeyville     74  91  72  91 /  30  30  30  30 
Chanute         73  91  71  89 /  40  40  40  30 
Iola            73  90  71  88 /  40  40  40  40 
Parsons-KPPF    74  91  72  90 /  30  30  30  30 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ049-051>053.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...ADK