790 
FXUS63 KICT 051128
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
628 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

The main challenge for the short term is the timing and intensity of 
the shower and thunderstorm activity.  PW values across the region 
look to remain rather high in the 1.4-1.8 inch range.  This high 
moisture content combined with good CAPE and mid level lapse rates 
will provide a near ideal environment for late afternoon and 
overnight thunderstorm activity.  Shear values across much of 
Southern Kansas are rather low which will keep the chances for 
severe storms down but, an isolated severe storm can't be ruled out. 
Further to the west in Central Kansas, shear values are much 
better. This is the area that is likely to have a better shot at 
severe weather this afternoon. The main threats will be damaging 
winds and flooding rains. Central Kansas will have a better chance
for large hail where the shear values are better. Hail up to ping
pong balls is possible here. Flooding is also be a possibility as
the PW values are very high making any thunderstorms that develop
Friday and Saturday to be a very efficient rain makers. The 
heaviest rain is expected generally east of I-135 and into the 
Southeast Kansas Friday. Steering currents are very weak which 
will make for any thunderstorm activity to be very slow moving. 

Saturday, a weak cold front will start to encroach on the region. 
This front will provide the needed focus and forcing to get 
thunderstorm activity going again.  CAPE and PW values will remain 
high but shear remains weak.  This will again keep the chances of 
severe weather low but can't rule out an isolated severe storm.  The 
main threats will again be damaging winds and flooding rains.  The 
main focus of the thunderstorm activity looks to remain to the west 
of region but is expected to spread to the east and over much of the 
CWA by Saturday evening.  

Sunday looks to remain a little unsettled but there will not be as 
much focus as Saturday.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be 
likely across the region.  Again, an isolated severe thunderstorm 
can't be ruled out with damaging wind and flooding rains being the 
primary threat.  

Metzger

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

The extended range looks to be a little unsettled to start of next 
weak with some thunderstorm activity and mostly cloudy skies. 
This will keep temperatures near or a little below normal for this
time of year. By Wednesday though, most of the long range models 
bring a strong ridge into the region and southerly winds. This 
will bring the temperatures up and reduce the precipitation 
chances. Temperatures are likely to be above normal for the end of
the week. 

Metzger

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

Expect VFR conditions for the first 10 hours or so, as decaying 
convective complex over NE KS, continues to diminish.  Lots of 
uncertainty on how this afternoon into this evening will play out. 
Current thinking suggests that convection will erupt across north 
central into central KS late this afternoon into this evening.  So 
will go with a VCTS for the KRSL/KSLN and KGBD taf sites for this 
afternoon.  Once this convection gets going, lots of uncertainty on 
where it will go. Rather benign steering flow suggests that the 
convection may linger along the I-70 corridor for most of the 
evening hours, but certain solutions push the convection to the 
south-southeast as a cold pool develops. For now will go with a VCTS 
for KCNU late tonight as this seems like the likely path.  But would 
not be surprised to see VCTS inserted in the KICT taf with later 
updates, as propagation vectors suggest convection may dive more 
southerly.  

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    94  71  90  71 /  30  40  30  40 
Hutchinson      94  69  89  69 /  30  40  30  40 
Newton          93  69  89  70 /  30  50  30  40 
ElDorado        91  70  88  71 /  30  40  30  40 
Winfield-KWLD   92  72  89  71 /  20  30  30  30 
Russell         97  68  88  66 /  40  50  40  50 
Great Bend      95  68  88  67 /  40  40  40  60 
Salina          94  69  89  68 /  40  60  40  50 
McPherson       94  69  89  68 /  30  50  40  50 
Coffeyville     90  71  90  72 /  30  30  30  30 
Chanute         90  71  89  71 /  40  50  40  40 
Iola            90  71  89  71 /  40  60  40  30 
Parsons-KPPF    90  71  89  72 /  40  30  30  30 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...Ketcham