409 FXUS61 KRLX 050006 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 806 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Very warm and humid weather stays with us through the weekend, with the daily chance for mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Cold front brings relief early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 805 PM Thursday... Lowered PoPs for the rest of tonight to reflect the early waning of convection, and the worked over environment, with the area in a relative minimum of around 2 KJ/kg of surface-based CAPE. As of 200 PM Thursday... Remnant broad circulation from the MCV a couple of days ago was situated near the Tri-State as of 18Z, slowly moving northeast along the OH River. This will provide the primary focus for afternoon convection. This will also serve to create just enough southerly llvl flow for orographically enhanced convection across the mountains this afternoon. Outflow boundaries will promote additional development across the adjacent northern Lowland counties. Heavy rain parameters remain in place with little flow through the column, a decent warm cloud depth, corfidi vectors less than 5 kts, and PWATs around 1.75 inches. Elsewhere, isolated to scattered convection will develop later this afternoon with the best chances tied closer to the remnant circulation. As it tracks northeast, ongoing convection across the northern mountains should be further enhanced into perhaps the early evening. Convection wanes this evening, though a shower risk will continue in the northern mountains and perhaps the northern adjacent Lowland counties. Otherwise, expect patchy dense fog and low stratus to develop, especially across locations that receive rain. Expect another day of mainly diurnally driven convection Friday. The remnant MCV circulation will still be in the vicinity, with models taking it into the northern WV panhandle during the afternoon. This will once again serve as the primary source for lift. There will be an additional boost from llvl southerly flow, providing for orographically enhancement across the northern mountains. The Flash Flood Watch continues on Friday. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 224 PM Thursday... Will be brief due to ongoing convection. Essentially a diurnally driven convective pattern will continue into the weekend. Slowly moving storms may result in additional scattered high water impacts. Warm and humid conditions to also persist. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 225 PM Thursday... Sfc boundary may push south across the region early next week. Drier northerly flow off the surface, and especially aloft, should result in a lowering of convective chances. Still very warm and only slightly less humid feeling. Precip chances may increase again by mid/late week. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 805 PM Thursday... Convection had faded early this evening, and there is little if any chance for impactful showers or thunderstorms at any of the terminals tonight. Valley fog is likely to form again, but should not do so as early nor be as persistent or even as dense as at most locations, with the possible exception of CKB. Fog will lift and scatter Friday morning, with a period of low stratus possible in the 12-14Z time frame, as the fog lifts out. Thereafter, scattered convecting is expected to start forming by midday once again. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent of IFR or worse fog/stratus in question overnight. TAFs may need amended as convection forms Friday afternoon. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H L M L M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L H L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H M AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... Brief IFR possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through Sunday. IFR possible in fog and stratus Monday and Tuesday mornings. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for WVZ006>011-014- 017>020-028>032-039-040-515>526. OH...Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>087. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RH/TRM/30 NEAR TERM...TRM/30 SHORT TERM...RH LONG TERM...RH AVIATION...TRM