292 
FXUS64 KMEG 040104
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
804 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

.UPDATE...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will persist this evening, but 
are expected to come to an end by 06z. Surface based instability 
still exists across portions of the Mid-South, primarily over 
north MS and eastern AR where coverage has been more isolated 
since mid/late afternoon. Shear remains weak so ordinary cells 
are favored, but deep moisture (PWAT near 1.75") will support the 
potential for heavy downpours and, perhaps, some gusty winds. 

Generally dry conditions are expected late tonight and early
tomorrow, with isolated, diurnal convection developing once again
by late morning. Showers and thunderstorms will be diurnally
forced yet again, resulting in the greatest coverage/intensity
during the 3-7 PM time frame. Most of the convection is expected
to dissipate around sunset, but there may be some lingering,
isolated cells through the overnight period. Heat indices are
expected to top out near 100F again tomorrow afternoon.

More precision was added to the PoP forecast through tomorrow
night given the bevvy of outdoor events planned across the CWA.
Sky cover was also modified, but other changes to the forecast
were minor.

MJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019/ 

Pop-up showers and storms can currently be seen on radar over 
parts of the Mid-South. They're currently focused mainly in 
eastern MS and southwest TN. An outflow boundary has developed 
across Crittenden, Tipton, and Haywood counties which will likely 
be the area of new thunderstorm development. ML CAPE values are in
the 2,000-2,500 J/kg range. Given the unstable airmass over the 
area, a few strong storms are possible, however with weak shear 
over the area, severe storms are not expected. Additionally, 
temperatures are currently across the CWA with rain cooled air 
over eastern MS and SW TN. Outside of storms, temperatures are in 
the low 90s with dew points in the low 70s.

An upper level ridge is still parked over the region and that's 
expected to be the case through the weekend.  Afternoon 
thunderstorms will be possible every day until the pattern breaks 
down.  However, a few weak disturbances will move across the 
region starting Friday and will help with the development of 
thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours, therefore POPs 
are slightly higher this weekend. On Saturday a pre-frontal trough
will move into the region with scattered showers and 
thunderstorms possible. The front will move into the region on 
Sunday which is when the greatest chance for showers and storms 
will be.  Unfortunately, the front won't have much temperature 
advection with it as the ridge keeps the warm weather around.  A 
long wave trough will move over eastern CONUS this weekend, but at
this time models show it not digging deep enough to the south to 
have much influence over our region. Models are hinting at 
slightly cooler temperatures possible by the end of next week.

KRF

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Set

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 to 30 hours. Ongoing
isolated convection will die out by 1-2Z. Diurnal convection will
begin developing tomorrow after 18-19Z. Light and variable winds
expected this evening into the overnight hours. After 15Z, winds
will become SW at 5-10 KTS.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$