089 FXUS64 KJAN 031101 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 601 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019 .UPDATE... Updated for 12Z aviation discussion && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF discussion: VFR conditions will prevail today but afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will pose a threat to some TAF sites. Coverage is expected to be more today, so any site that sees a storm will get gusty winds, MVFR or lower vis restrictions. However, VFR conditions should occur outside of storms and once again this evening. /28/ && .DISCUSSION... Today and tonight... Another summer day with afternoon and evening showers and storms are expected. Hi-res guidance indicates that coverage should be a bit more than was the case today, so POPs will be slightly higher. Strong to severe storm potential will need to be assessed per the morning sounding, but vertical totals don't appear to be very impressive, and this may help to limit microburst potential. Highs today will reach into the 90s. Convection may also help to limit this and keep locations into the 80s. Another warm night is expected with lows in the 70s. /28/ Thursday through mid week next week... Warm conditions with daily storm chances are expected through the extended Independence Day Holiday Weekend. Mid and upper level ridging as well as a surface high centered over the northern Gulf Coast will help to keep diurnal storm activity isolated on July 4th with the better chances of storms existing along and north of the HWY 82 corridor, further away from the building surface high. On Friday, storm chances will be greatest in the eastern portions of our region as the surface high shifts further west along the Gulf Coast of LA. Temperatures on Thursday and Friday will increase to the low to mid 90s with some upper 90s not out of the question on Friday in the southern portions of the region. Heat indices will range from near 100 to around 105 on both days. However, there is not enough confidence in widespread near 105 degree heat indices to warrant inclusion in the HWO at this point. However, precautions should be made in advance if planning any strenuous outdoor activities on either day. Even warmer weather is expected on Saturday when a good portion of the region could see highs in the mid to upper 90s. Storm chances will also begin to improve areawide on Saturday and into early next week as upper heights begin to lower over the east coast resulting in NW flow aloft for the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. A few weak disturbances in the NW flow aloft will help aid the development of thunderstorms in and near the region through at least Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 90 72 92 74 / 49 21 39 17 Meridian 90 73 92 75 / 51 25 40 17 Vicksburg 88 73 92 73 / 48 19 41 16 Hattiesburg 91 73 94 75 / 42 15 38 17 Natchez 86 72 92 72 / 49 20 42 13 Greenville 88 74 92 74 / 49 20 45 18 Greenwood 89 74 92 74 / 52 20 47 17 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 28