544 FXUS61 KBGM 021844 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 244 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary boundary will set up just south of the region tonight and persist through Thursday. This will be the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly during the afternoon hours. Remaining warm and humid through the end of the week with showers and storms Friday afternoon through evening and again on Saturday. High pressure makes a return on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Cloud cover throughout is really limiting convection this afternoon. Best chance to see thunder this afternoon and evening will be south of the NY/PA border. Best instability is across Luzerne County, but still only about 1000 J/kg based on SPC meso-analysis. The Wyoming Valley will have be a brief window for a severe storm later this afternoon/evening, but probability is low. Very moist airmass will be in place tonight, with low clouds expected and possibly some fog as well in some locations. A stationary front will be set up across Central PA tomorrow. Several weak perturbations are forecast to push through the westerly flow and thunderstorms mainly south and west of Binghamton will be possible through tomorrow evening. Not expecting any severe storms at this time, with low shear values expected and minimal instability. Ridging will start to build in tomorrow night and this should keep us dry for the remainder of the period && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will build southeast into the region while a frontal boundary decays to our south. Trends have been for the high pressure system shunting moisture return and the lift needed for scattered showers and thunderstorms to our southwest. Trended the storm chances downward a bit in this period. A hot and humid day is still expected with highs well into the 80's and pushing 90 in spots. Lows will kept up in the 60's as well. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will move offshore leading to moist southwesterly flow on the backside of a strong high pressure ridge in the southeast. This will likely lead to the development of some showers and thunderstorms during the peak heating hours in the afternoon and evening each day. Coverage looks more limited on Friday given the lack of a lifting source such as a front. However, a cold front is likely to approach the region Saturday to provide enough lift for a higher coverage of thunderstorms. Summertime temperatures are expected to continue with lows in the 60's and highs in the 80's. Sunday through Tuesday: A cold front should finally push through the region allowing high pressure to build in behind the cold front. In addition to drier conditions the airmass will be more refreshing behind the front. Lows should fall to around 60 with highs around 80. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mostly VFR conditions expected through this evening, however there is still a chance for some showers at ITH south to ELM, BGM and AVP later this afternoon into early this evening. Expecting shower activity to be more isolated though than earlier forecast, so did not hit restrictions hard due to the isolated nature of shower activity. Current thinking is that overnight, very moist airmass remains in place and most likely low stratus and IFR ceilings could become an issue late and into Wednesday morning. Conditions should improve through the day tomorrow, with VFR by the late morning/early afternoon. Outlook... Wednesday afternoon through Saturday...Mainly VFR, but possible restrictions in scattered showers and thunderstorms. Best chance for showers and storms will be Friday into Saturday across the region. Sunday...VFR conditions expected with high pressure moving back into the region. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...MWG LONG TERM...MWG AVIATION...MPK