636 
FXUS63 KILX 020749
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
249 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019

07z/2am surface analysis shows a 1012mb low over southwest
Minnesota...with a nearly stationary frontal boundary extending
eastward into the Great Lakes. Scattered convection is currently
ongoing near the boundary, while warm/dry conditions are noted
further south across central Illinois. The dry weather will
continue through early afternoon before widely scattered
thunderstorms develop within a highly unstable/weakly sheared 
environment. With main forcing staying well north of the KILX CWA,
think areal coverage will remain low today...so am only going 
with 30 PoPs this afternoon/evening. Coverage will likely be 
greater further north near the front, with several models 
suggesting this activity dropping southward toward the I-74 
corridor by mid to late evening. Given decent model consensus, 
have brought 40-50 PoPs into the far north this evening before the
storms diminish overnight. Aside from a few hit-or-miss storms, 
it will be another hot/humid day with afternoon highs in the lower
90s. Lows tonight will drop into the lower 70s. 

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019

Very warm and humid conditions will continue through the end of
the week as the Midwest/Ohio River Valley remain under the
influence of an upper ridge. Several weaknesses in the prevailing
ridge will provide forcing for scattered afternoon/evening 
thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday. 

As has been advertised for several model runs, a short-wave
progged to track across southern Canada will gradually carve a 
weak trough over the Great Lakes/New England by early next week.
As the wave passes to the north, it will push a cold front into
Illinois late Friday into early Saturday. Thunderstorm coverage
will likely increase as the front arrives, with most models
showing the boundary settling southward to the Ohio River by
Sunday. Have therefore continued high chance PoPs across the board
through Saturday...then have confined rain chances to locations
south of the I-72 corridor on Sunday. After that, a period of
slightly cooler/less humid conditions will be on tap early next
week...with highs dropping into the lower to middle 80s by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019

VFR conditions are forecast across the central IL airports through
06Z/1 am Wednesday, outside of any scattered afternoon showers 
and thunderstorms. Low confidence on any TAF site being affected
by a storm, so no VCTS was included with this update.

Mostly clear skies will prevail the rest of tonight. Cumulus 
clouds will redevelop after 15Z/10am Tue. Spotty showers and 
storms are expected to bubble up in the afternoon heating of the 
day. There is some indication that a more organized line of storms
may develop in N IL by late afternoon, and progress south toward
I-72 during the evening. This is a change from previous CAM
output, but there is some agreement among several of the high res
guidance on this feature.

Winds will remain SW over the next 24 hours, as the area remains
in the warm sector south of a stationary front.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Shimon