425 FXUS65 KABQ 011739 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1139 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, but short-lived MVFR conditions are possible in thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm impacts will favor strong and erratic wind gusts over limitations due to rain and/or hail. Terminals most likely to be impacted are KLVS, KSAF, KAEG and KABQ...and generally in that order in terms of forecast confidence. Outflow from storms will likely hit KTCC and KROW with a wind shift later this evening. 11 && .PREV DISCUSSION...314 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019... .SYNOPSIS... High pressure aloft will move just southwest of New Mexico today with moisture beginning to increase in eastern parts of the state. Thunderstorms will stretch from southwestern to northeastern parts of the state with the highest chances for rain found over the southwestern mountains and peaks of the Sangre de Cristos this afternoon. Thunderstorms will gradually attempt to develop farther east into the plains this evening. Temperatures are expected to drop a few degrees today, with an additional few degrees of cooling in eastern New Mexico on Tuesday. Thunderstorm chances will be highest over the Sangre de Cristos on Tuesday with isolated to scattered storms also found in remaining areas of the central mountain chain and portions of the eastern plains. Rain chances will lower into the middle of the week, but are expected to increase again Friday into the weekend, mostly over eastern New Mexico. && .DISCUSSION... The soon-to-be dominant centroid of the upper high is already moving southwest of NM and over the Baja. A plume of high level moisture is still over eastern AZ and parts of NM with better overall moisture found in central to eastern CO with a subtle short wave trough likely embedded near or just north of the NM-CO border. Farther east into TX, the inverted trough continues to inch along where much deeper moisture and higher PWATs reside. PWATs are expected to rise in portions of eastern NM, particularly the northeastern parts where the aforementioned wave may drop in by late afternoon. Storms are still expected to fire over the southwestern to west central parts of NM before drier air arrives from the west. While the focus for storms will be in the southwestern mountains and the Sangres, cells will likely fill in between by early evening and gradually advance into the eastern plains as cold pools begin spreading that way. Temperatures will be tricky in a few of the central areas of the state today. Previous guidance had been aggressively cooling readings today, but the new MET guidance abruptly flipped back up a few degrees in some locales, including ABQ. Look for drier air to continue wrapping into western NM on Tuesday while the east continues to observe rising PWATs and perhaps a bit of weak large scale ascent ahead of the inverted trough over TX. Temperatures appear to cool a few more degrees in eastern NM due to the increase moisture that will act as a moderator, but the western half of the state should observe nearly negligible changes. On Wednesday and Thursday, the upper high makes a subtle creep northeastward and back into NM. Drier air will stay entrenched over parts of the state with the eastern tier of zones remaining the most moist and a gradual moistening in the southwestern mountains Thursday. Isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms will be possible along/east of the central mountain chain during the holiday evening of the 4th. While the exact fate of high pressure will continue to be speculated, it does appear it will continue to shift farther northeast, somewhere into TX whether it be the panhandle or the coastline. Either way, getting the high east of NM could offer a faint southerly wind component aloft to advect better mid level subtropical moisture our way. Consequently, POPs increase Friday and into the weekend with the eastern half of the state likely being the beneficiary of the best moisture and rainfall. Another tropical system is also being resolved by forecast models in the eastern Pacific, but it does not have the Baja nor NM on its travel itinerary. 52 && .FIRE WEATHER... The subtropical high aloft will recenter over NW Mexico today through Tuesday steering gradually drier air over NM from the west. As a result, the monsoon moisture plume will shift eastward with an axis of scattered to numerous storms from around Glenwood to around Red River today. Storms will then migrate eastward across the eastern plains tonight as an upper level trough exiting CO clips NE NM. Some storms along and west of the continental divide will produce little or no rain today, but wetting footprints will be larger further east. In the wake of the upper trough, a moist back door front will sag into the eastern plains late tonight, while dry air overcomes more of the west, causing scattered to numerous showers and storms to favor the central mountain chain eastward on Tuesday. Significant drying is expected most places Wednesday with a downtick in the coverage and wetness of storms as the 500 mb ridge shifts eastward over southern NM. However, a broader mid-level high will build over the Gulf coast Thursday through Saturday, steering gradually richer monsoon moisture northward over NM. Haines Indices should range from 5 to 6 across most of the forecast area Wednesday through Friday, then the high Haines values should retreat over the Four Corners region over the weekend. Models diverge on the position of the subtropical ridge from Sunday onward, and whether or not a moist back door front will arrive Saturday night, but they do generally agree on the monsoon moisture staying put into early next week. 44 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 34