173 FXUS61 KBGM 011702 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 102 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the region today will provide sunny skies and seasonal temperatures. It will turn warmer and more humid this week with a chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly during the daylight hours. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Only minor changes to adjust for current conditions with the mid-morning and early afternoon updates. Forecast on track. High pressure over the region today will bring sunny skies and seasonal temperatures. Highs will range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s with a northwest breeze less than 10 mph. Tonight...Late tonight a mid level short wave and weak surface trough will approach the region from southern Ontario. Will carry chance POPs across the northern half of the forecast area toward sunrise. Models indicate no surface based CAPE and very weak mid level lapse rates so will not include thunderstorms. Overnight lows will range in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Tuesday...The above mentioned surface trough will move through the area with airmass becoming moderately unstable by afternoon. The best instability will be across the central/southern forecast area where a mid level short wave may also pass during the afternoon. Will carry high chance POPs for thunderstorms central and southern areas with just slight chance far north. Highs on Tuesday will be a couple of degrees warmer than today. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... An increasingly warm and humid air mass will take hold of central NY and northeast PA during this time frame. There will be chances for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms each day...but nothing too widespread expected. Temperatures peak in the mid to upper 80s for Independence Day, along with surface dew points reaching around 70. This will make for rather warm and humid conditions, with peak heat indices in the low to mid-90s Thursday afternoon. Tuesday night and Wednesday: Our forecast area will still be in a northwest flow regime over the top of a developing ridge in the lower Ohio Valley. One weak wave looks to move through Tuesday night, bringing one round of showers and possible thunderstorms. Then, another weak disturbance approaches from Ohio/western PA Wednesday afternoon...as the atmosphere destabilizes this will bring additional chances for scattered showers and storms, mainly from Auburn-Binghamton-Honesdale southwest. Of course, these exact details may still change depending on the timing and track of the aforementioned shortwave. It now looks like the true warm front will be delayed, as surface winds remains generally westerly through the day Wednesday. However, dew points (mid-60s) and temperatures still gradually rise. Lows will be in the 60s and highs 83-88. Wednesday night and Thursday: Upper level heights rise as a ridge briefly builds over the region. 500mb heights rise to around 590dm and a weak surface high over New England tries to keep things mainly dry...at least from Binghamton north and east. Still have slight chance to chance PoPs for afternoon and evening thunderstorms for much of the area...but overall there has been a slightly drier trend in the guidance. Skies should be partly sunny, and it will be quite humid. Lows well into the 60s and highs 85-90. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Starting off mainly dry Thursday night as the upper ridge and New England surface high remain in place. Muggy with lows 65-70 and light south winds. Did increase PoPs for showers and thunderstorms into the high chance and likely range for Friday. There has been good agreement between the different model guidance and run to run consistency that a stronger shortwave trough will dig over Ohio and western PA. This puts our area under increasing upper level divergence and there will be plenty of instability. PWATS also rise close to 2 inches. Another stronger upper level trough zips by to our north over Ontario on Saturday. This will drag a front through our area late Saturday or Saturday night. Therefore, kept chance PoPs for more showers and thunderstorms in the forecast Saturday. Then, expect an air mass change behind this front for Sunday and next Monday, with lower humidity and temperatures (upper 70s to mid- 80s). It looks to be mainly dry as a surface high builds over head bringing partly sunny conditions. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Generally VFR throughout the TAF period. However, some showers and associated MVFR ceilings are possible at KSYR and KRME between 10-14Z Tuesday. Some uncertainty is present with this exact window by an hour or two in either direction. These MVFR ceilings could get into KITH, KBGM and KELM for a brief time as well. Right now expectations are for the showers and MVFR ceilings to stay north. Winds will be 10 knots or less throughout the TAF period. Any MVFR ceilings should break up be late morning. Outlook... Tuesday afternoon...Mainly VFR but possible restrictions in scattered showers. A thunderstorm or two is possible at KAVP with lower chances at KELM and KBGM. Tuesday night and Wednesday morning...VFR. Wednesday morning through Saturday...Mainly VFR but possible restrictions in scattered showers and thunderstorms. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RRM NEAR TERM...MWG/RRM SHORT TERM...MJM LONG TERM...MJM AVIATION...MWG